Sept 20 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
edged up on Friday as investors shifted their focus to economic
data next week after pricing the outcome of the Federal Reserve
policy meeting.
Risky assets rallied after the Fed as investors expected
rates to fall further and the U.S. central bank to be close to
winning its battle against inflation while engineering a soft
landing for the U.S. economy.
Yields move inversely with prices.
German 10-year yields were up 0.5 basis points
(bps) at 2.20%, and it was about to end the week 4.5 bps higher.
"After days of agonising over whether the Fed will deliver
either a 25 bps or a 50 bps cut, the market can finally move
back to looking at macro fundamentals and incorporating the
different levels of exuberance central banks are showing towards
policy easing," said Rohan Khanna, head of the euro rate
strategy at Barclays.
September flash PMIs on Monday will be a crucial reality
check on the region's growth momentum, which has recently
disappointed expectations.
The Olympics-driven boost to French PMIs in August lifted
the overall headline PMI, and markets expect some give-back.
Later next week, flash inflation releases for France and
Spain are due before the German and euro area print the
following week.
"We doubt the Fed will make ECB, Norges Bank or the Bank of
England move faster," said Ruben Segura Cauyela, European
economist at BofA.
Money markets fully price a 25 bps rate cut by the European
Central Bank in December and an around 25% chance of a further
move by year-end.
France's government bonds recently underperformed their
peers, with its yields dropping 0.5 bps to 2.91% on
Friday after rising 9 bps this week.
The yield spread between French and German Bunds - a gauge
of risk premium investors demand to hold French government debt
- widened to 73.5 bps. It hit 74.80 bps on Thursday, its highest
level since mid-August. It rose above 80 bps during the French
elections.
France appeared on the cusp of a new government on Thursday
that is likely to have to administer a politically toxic round
of spending cuts or tax hikes to improve the country's fiscal
mess.
The five-year forward inflation swap- a key market gauge of
euro area long-term inflation expectations- was at 2.06% after
hovering above the 2% level since early September. It hit a
26-month low at around 2.03% on Sept. 11.
Germany's 2-year Schatz yields were up 2.4 bps at
2.159.
Italian 10-year yields fell 1.5 bps to 3.54 and
are about to end the week 4 bps higher. The yield spread with
Bunds was at 135 bps.