Aug 30 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers on
Friday got fresh confirmation that inflation is continuing to
ease, clearing the way for a first interest rate reduction next
month as they shift their focus to preventing further cooling in
the labor market.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose
2.5% in July from a year earlier, the Commerce Department
reported, matching the gain in June. Over the most recent three
months, the annualized reading on the Fed's preferred gauge of
inflation is well below its 2% goal.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that "the time
has come" to cut rates, after a battle with decades-high
inflation that saw the U.S. central bank raising rates
aggressively in 2022 and 2023. It has kept its policy rate in
the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July.
"The recent price trends confirm that the end of the Fed's
inflation fight is coming into view," assuring a rate cut at the
Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, Ben Ayers, senior economist at
Nationwide, wrote. "The further cooling of inflation could give
the Fed leeway to be more aggressive with rate declines at
coming meetings, especially if the labor market shows a steep
deterioration."
After the release of the report, which also showed consumer
spending rising solidly, traders kept bets that the Fed will
stick to a quarter-percentage-point reduction at first, but
deliver a bigger half-percentage-point cut at a later meeting.
Financial markets continue to price in the Fed cutting
rates by a full percentage point by the end of this year. Most
analysts are predicting a bit less, given how strong the economy
has been, but say that labor market readings will drive how
aggressive the Fed ultimately is.
The U.S. central bank has gone "from being an
inflation-first Fed to a labor-first Fed," is how economists at
Evercore ISI summed up the situation on Friday.
The unemployment rate has risen nearly a full percentage
point, to 4.3%, since the Fed stopped raising rates a little
more than a year ago. That is still low by historical standards
but enough for Powell to declare that the Fed would not welcome
any further weakening.
The focus of investors as well as the Fed now turns to a run
of key data before the September meeting, including the release
of the U.S. government's employment report for August on Friday
and the consumer price index report for August in the following
week.