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Alphabet, Tesla to report earnings Wednesday, first of
'Magnificent 7' in Q2
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Top 10 S&P 500 weights recently hit 37.3%, near January
record
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Nvidia ( NVDA ) weight greater than five S&P 500 sectors
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, July 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street's reliance on
a small number of high market-value stocks to keep momentum
going for the U.S. equities bull market will be tested in coming
days as major technology and growth companies report earnings.
Concentration in widely followed market barometers such as
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite means that
weakness in just a few names can have broad ramifications as the
indexes hover at record highs.
"When a handful of stocks dominate the market ... if you do
have a period of disappointment from those stocks, you could see
disproportionate impacts on your portfolio from just a handful
of company-specific issues," said Michael Reynolds, vice
president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
Drawing attention to such top-heavy market leadership on
Wednesday will be earnings results due from Google parent
Alphabet and Tesla, the first of the
"Magnificent Seven" megacaps to report this period.
That group - which also includes Nvidia ( NVDA ), Microsoft ( MSFT )
, Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta Platforms ( META )
- earned the "Magnificent" moniker because of their
dominant business positions and huge stock gains in 2023 and
2024.
Stock performance this year among the Magnificent Seven has been
mixed. But they have all rebounded since April from a selloff
following President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement
of sweeping global tariffs.
The group amounted to one-third of the weight of the S&P 500
as of Friday, due to their massive market caps, their largest
combined presence since the start of the year, according to LSEG
Datastream.
Alphabet shares are up about 1% on the year, while shares of
Elon Musk-led Tesla are down about 18%. Together, they account
for over 5% of the S&P 500's weight.
Other data points also indicate market concentration
becoming more extreme.
The top 10 weights in the S&P 500 last week hit 37.3% of the
index, near the 38% level it reached in January, which had been
its highest level on record, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices,
citing data since 1975.
These massive stocks generally have higher valuations. The
top 10 stocks have an average price-to-earnings ratio of about
26 times, compared to 20 times for the rest of the S&P 500, said
Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth
Management.
"The biggest stocks are very expensive," Shalett said. "If
the biggest stocks fall the most, the index is very vulnerable."
The S&P 500 technology sector recently accounted
for 33.9% of the entire S&P 500's market value, the largest
share since March 2000 during the height of the dot-com bubble
era, according to LSEG Datastream.
The S&P 500 is considered a benchmark for the stock market,
but its top-heavy nature could mean investors who own funds that
mirror the index are less diversified than they think.
"If you are designing a portfolio, you really need to
consider, OK, what are the weights there?" said Todd Sohn, ETF
and technical strategist at Strategas. "It's not as diversified
as it has been in the past. Then you have to consider some other
means out there to keep that portfolio balanced."
Nvidia ( NVDA ), which recently became the first company to top $4
trillion in market value, had as of Tuesday a 7.83% weight in
the S&P 500. That is the most a single stock has ever accounted
for in the index, topping the 7.7% that Apple ( AAPL ) reached last year,
according to Sohn, who looked at 45 years of data.
The weight of Nvidia ( NVDA ) - a semiconductor company that has
symbolized the artificial intelligence boom - is greater than
five entire S&P 500 sectors out of 11 in the index, including
consumer staples, which includes 38 stocks and has a
5.4% weight, and energy, a 23-company group with a total
S&P 500 weighting of slightly less than 3%.
Heading into the heavy part of earnings season, the S&P 500
is up over 7% this year, and becoming increasingly led by larger
stocks.
Since April 8, when the market hit its low point for the
year following Trump's tariff announcement, the S&P 500 has
gained nearly 27%. The equal-weight version of the index - which
is considered a gauge of the average S&P 500 stock - has risen
21.5% in that time.
Since the end of 2022, the S&P 500 has gained over 60%, more
than doubling the equal-weight version's gains in that time.
"When the market gets really expensive and narrow ... the
market becomes more vulnerable," said Matthew Maley, chief
market strategist at Miller Tabak. "So it's a big concern for
me."