HDFC Bank will be reporting its third quarter FY23 results on Saturday 14th. As per the CNBC-TV18 poll, the net interest income (NII) growth could be on the stronger side, best in 14 quarters and for the first time on a year-on-year basis, in the last 14 quarters, it could be north of 20 percent plus.
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CNBC-TV18 poll suggests NII growth of 20.9 percent year-on-year and about 6.1 percent sequentially, which means that the net interest margin could improve year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
According to the poll expect profit growth of more than 17 percent year-on-year and about 14.2 percent sequentially.
HDFC Bank have already given a business update, wherein the loan growth has been disappointing. Deposit momentum was healthy 20 percent year-on-year and about 3.6 percent sequentially.
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The current account and savings account (CASA) growth on a sequential basis was on the lower side. So CASA ratio is at eight quarter low at 44 percent.
The loan growth year-on-year is weakest in last four quarters coming in at 19.50 percent and sequentially it's the weakest last six quarters coming in at 1.8 percent. Ex pool that they share with HDFC limited the loan growth was at 19.50 percent year-on-year and about 1.9 percent sequentially.
The credit deposit ratio also disappoints given that it's at a five-quarter low of 86.9 percent.
However, the banking sector has been seeing increase in their lending rates. So watch out for the net interest margin which could expand both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Slippages or formation of bad loans in a quarter as per PhillipCapital is estimated as Rs 6000 crore which works with Rs 5700 crore that they reported in the previous quarter.
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Kotak Securities estimates operating profit growth of 13.50 percent year-on-year and about 9.50 percent sequentially.
Another key factor to notice is a cost to income ratio because a bank has been expanding its branches as well.
Asset quality will remain stable or improve, ICICI Securities estimates a three to four basis point improvement in gross NPA ratio and about three to four basis point improvement in net NPA ratio.