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MCX to be key beneficiary of global market volatility. Motilal Oswal explains why
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MCX to be key beneficiary of global market volatility. Motilal Oswal explains why
Apr 3, 2020 5:55 AM

While most stocks have witnessed massive selling due to the coronavirus-led rout, MCX India has still gained 30 percent in the last 1 year.

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Motilal Oswal, in a recent report, mentioned that the total value of contracts traded on MCX increased strongly by 44 percent YoY in 4QFY20. This was significantly ahead of the brokerage's earlier estimate and largely led by heightened uncertainty and volatility in the global markets.

"Precious metals like gold and silver reported a robust increase of

120 percent and 133 percent, respectively in the total value of contracts traded. Volatility in crude prices led to a surge in speculation activity translating into 60 percent YoY growth in traded value," the report noted.

During the quarter, while growth in the traded value of gold and silver was more pronounced in February and March, it was more front-ended for crude due to the sharp fall in crude prices. Most of the base metals continued to show a trend of decline (YoY) due to the compulsory delivery rule, which impacted the interest levels of speculators and arbitrageurs, it further explained.

MOSL, however, also noted that against the backdrop of the COVID-19 outbreak, trading at MCX was truncated to eight hours, making it out of sync with the global commodity markets, which led to a sharp 80 percent drop in traded value. Expecting the restrictions to continue till April-end materially impacting revenue growth/EBITDA margins for Q1FY21, it added.

Nevertheless, the brokerage remained bullish on the stock and said that the medium-term prospects of MCX remain robust.

Cues from the GFC period hint at increased interest in precious metals over a 2-3 year period following crisis/market volatility. The COVID-19-led slowdown in global growth, soft interest rates, and liquidity injections should be the key factors driving interest in gold/silver this time, it stated.

The brokerage reiterated 'buy' rating on the stock and expect a 24 percent upside in a 12-month period.

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