F&O series expiry comes a day early this time around as Indian equity markets will remain shut on account of a holiday on Thursday. A fairly long expiry, this has been yet another forgettable series for the Nifty 50.

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The index is down 560 points for the series so far. This would be the fourth consecutive F&O series where the Nifty 50 has had negative returns.

Over the last four F&O series, the Nifty 50 has lost over 1,500 points. Unless the index has a massive rally in today's session, the March F&O series is poised to be the worst that the Nifty 50 has had since September last year.

Rangebound trading continued in the market on Tuesday as the Nifty 50 managed to hold on to the 16,900 mark. Dealing room checks are also suggesting that 16,800 - 16,850 remains a crucial support for the index on the downside.

Despite the rangebound moves, investors have lost Rs 2.6 lakh crore over the last two trading sessions.

Ajay Vora of Nuvama Asset Management told CNBC-TV18 that the firm remains positive on banks and pharma. With the slowdown in the US, Vora does not expect IT to play the role of a traditional defensive. "If compared with the pharmaceutical sector, the valuations look reasonable for similar growth. So, my sense is that money should move from IT to pharma as a defensive play, and we continue to maintain positive on banks," he said.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com told CNBC-TV18 that the Nifty 50 looks like consolidating between 16,800 - 17,200, but underneath, things are deteriorating pretty quickly. "There are nearly 400 stocks near their 52-week highs or 52-week lows and of them only 11 are near their 52-week highs, rest of them are near their 52-week lows," he said. He highlights 16,747 and 16,400 as some key supports for the Nifty 50 on the downside. "Only the FMCG sector has still not broken down, almost every other sectoral index has broken down. So the quality and the breadth of this market is getting poorer," he said.

The short-term trend of the Nifty 50 will change only if the index closes above the mark of 17,200, according to Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com. In case the index breaks below its key support level of 16,850 - 16,900, it may fall towards 16,750. "Traders should look for buying opportunities only once the index breaks above 17,200," he said. He also advises watching out for 28,900 levels on the Nifty Midcap100 index, whether there is any reversal from those levels.

A very broad range of 39,000 - 40,000 continues to dictate the moves on the Nifty Bank index and Kunal Shah of LKP Securities believes that a directional trade will take place only once the index breaks out in either direction.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on March 29:

SGX Nifty

On Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — was flat at 16,996, thereby pointing to a subdued opening for the market.

Global Markets

Markets in the Asia-Pacific are trading mixed as investors look towards a reaction in Alibaba's shares, after it announced a split into six business groups.

The Australian ASX 200 is down 0.1 percent, while the Nikkei 225 and Topix in Japan are flat. South Korea's indices are also trading with marginal losses.

Markets on Wall Street had a session of consolidation on Tuesday, but rising yields put pressure on the Nasdaq, which underperformed its peers.

The Dow Jones fell close to 40 points, while the S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 0.5 percent in trade on Tuesday.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Going forward, the sentiment on the Nifty 50 will remain weak and sell-on-rallies will remain the trend among traders until the Nifty 50 crosses the 17,250 mark, Rupak De of LKP Securities said. With the index continuing to remain below key moving averages, De expects the index to fall to 16,750, in case it breaks below 16,950 - 16,900 decisively.

Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities expects the selling pressure on the Nifty 50 to intensify, in case it breaks below the 16,800 mark. "The short-term trend for the Nifty is expected to remain down unless Nifty surpasses the 17,200 resistance," he said.

"If the Nifty 50 fails to regain strength to move higher from support levels in the short-term, that may lead to a decisive downside breakdown of the 16,900 - 16,800 support band," warned Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He expects any upside bounce from these levels to find resistance at 17,100.

FII/DII activity

Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)

Long Unwinding (Decrease In Price and Open Interest)

First Published:Mar 29, 2023 5:30 AM IST