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Trade Setup For May 2: Nifty 50 aims for further upside after best week in nine months
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Trade Setup For May 2: Nifty 50 aims for further upside after best week in nine months
May 1, 2023 7:50 PM

The Nifty 50 is back above the mark of 18,000, more than two months after it last closed above those levels. The previous instance of the same goes back to February 16.

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NSE

It was a good start to the May F&O series with the Nifty 50 index gaining for the fifth straight day. This five-day gaining streak has resulted in the index gaining nearly 450 points.

The positive end also ensured that both Sensex & the Nifty 50 rose nearly 2.5 percent for the week - their best weekly performance in nine months.

45 out of the 50 index constituents closed with gains, while the PSU Bank and Realty indices closed with weekly gains of over 5 percent.

For today's trading session, which will mark the start of a truncated week, the market will react to results from Kotak Mahindra Bank, along with a slew of midcap results. The market will also react to monthly sales numbers from Maruti and Tata Motors.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Tata Steel will report results today, while the remaining auto companies will come out with their monthly sales figures.

"We are still very positive on the private sector banks, especially ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. Both have been reporting strong numbers and the runway is still there from here on as well," Ajay Vora of Nuvama Asset Management said. "Considering the whole growth story for all the private sector banks, and valuations not that expensive, closer to mean or maybe slightly above mean, I would still stay very constructive on the overall private sector banks," he said.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities observed the formation of a long bull candle on Nifty 50's daily chart, indicating continuation of the upside momentum with strength. "Presently, Nifty is moving towards the formation of new higher top, which is not confirmed yet," he said. However, he does expect the index to reach the next level of resistance at 18,200 - 18,300, with immediate support at 17,900.

Out of the 17 trading sessions in the month of April, the Nifty Bank index declined only in three of them. The index gained over 2,500 points during the month, with most constituents ending gaining. Rupak De of LKP Securities expects the trend to remain positive on the Nifty Bank, as long as it remains above the mark of 43,000. He expects the index to move higher towards levels of 43,500.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on May 02:

SGX Nifty

On Monday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — declined 27 points or 0.15 percent to 18,246. It must be noted that while SGX operated on Monday, Indian equities were shut on account of a holiday.

Global Markets

It was a tepid start to the week on Wall Street, where benchmark indices ended marginally lower after cooling off from the day's high.

The Dow Jones ended 50 points lower after correcting over 200 points from the highest point of the day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also ended little changed but below the flat line.

JPMorgan shares closed near a 52-week high after US' largest lender took over the operations of First Republic Bank after a weekend auction.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities believes that while momentum oscillators on the daily charts have entered overbought territory, the index may continue to move higher when the trend is strong. He sees the next major hurdle for the Nifty 50 near levels of 18,200. On the downside, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average near 17,650 will act as a strong support. In case the index breaks above 18,200, it may see further upside.

De of LKP Securities says that the Nifty 50 has formed a "head and shoulder" pattern on the daily chart. "On the higher end, Nifty might continue its upward journey till it holds above 18000 on a closing basis. Resistance on the higher end is placed at 18200, above which a further rally might come," he said.

Key Levels To Track

For Thursday's weekly options expiry, the 18,200 strike call of the Nifty 50 index added 33.88 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 18,100 call, which added 32.55 lakh shares.

On the other side, the 18,000 put saw maximum addition of 83 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,900 and 17,950 put added 33.1 lakh and 23.5 lakh shares in Open Interest.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 1.32 from 1.20 on Thursday. No stocks are currently in the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

FPIs have bought equity worth Rs 9,752 crore in April, according to NSDL data. "An important macro factor that has tilted the FPI approach is the appreciation in rupee," according to VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, who also said that foreign investors have been buyers in financial services, auto, and auto component companies.

Fresh Longs (Increase In Price and Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Aarti Industries32,66,550563.500.95%13.80%
Laurus Labs1,45,46,400308.405.22%13.24%
Indiamart2,85,6005,355.001.83%13.13%
Syngene26,68,000678.603.75%12.96%
Delta Corp1,52,32,000206.253.51%11.32%

Fresh Shorts (Decrease In Price and Increase In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Atul2,02,2006,843.00-2.27%32.22%
Axis Bank5,89,36,800865.10-2.48%25.33%
Godrej Consumer93,52,000915.00-4.75%23.12%
Shriram Finance48,26,4001,326.00-5.79%19.28%
Crompton Consumer1,34,44,500255.95-2.23%14.41%

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