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Trade Setup For May 3: Go First crisis may dampen an otherwise bullish run for the Nifty 50
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Trade Setup For May 3: Go First crisis may dampen an otherwise bullish run for the Nifty 50
May 2, 2023 7:43 PM

It has been 18 trading sessions since April 3 and the Nifty 50 has gained in 14 of them. Those 14 sessions have yielded the index nearly 800 points in gains.

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The Nifty 50 began the truncated week on a positive note, ending higher for the sixth day in a row. Although off the day's high, the index ended with gains and at the highest level since January 3.

Although the Nifty 50 has been forming higher highs for six straight sessions, the current GoFirst insolvency crisis may end up putting a halt to this ongoing rally.

Banks like Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda and IDBI Bank have exposure to the airline. While Axis Bank has a small exposure of Rs 30 crore, Bank of Baroda has an exposure worth over Rs 1,400 crore. It remains to be seen how the Nifty Bank reacts to this issue, which can determine the direction of the Nifty 50.

The market in today's session will also react to results from Tata Steel. Another Tata Group company, Titan, will be reporting its March quarter results today.

"Titan as a business, I think it's way beyond just gold prices that is the main reason why we buy it, it's a disruptor. It's a great capital allocator and it's gaining market share in in gold and diamond jewellery by leaps and bounds from its competitors," Rakshit Ranjan of Marcellus Investment Managers told CNBC-TV18.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Nagaraj Shetti observed the formation of a small positive candle with minor upper and lower shadows on Nifty 50's daily chart, which technically indicates tiredness in the market after a sharp rally. "A decisive move below 18,100-18,050 levels could start a short-term downward correction in the market," he said, adding that there is still no confirmation of any higher top reversal formation. Immediate downside support is at 18,080 with resistance at 18,200.

Surpassing 18,200 and 18,250 on the upside will be a challenge for the Nifty 50 bulls, according to Sameet Chavan of Angel one, who does not rule out some profit booking or time correction before the next leg of the rally. Immediate base has now shifted higher towards 18,000 - 17,900. "Traders are advised to stick to stock centric approach and should avoid aggressive bets in indices at higher levels," he said.

The Nifty Bank is now at a crucial resistance point of 43,500 which it needs to sustain for further upward momentum, according to Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. He sees downside support between 43,000 - 42,800 and any dip towards these levels will be ideal to create fresh long positions.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on May 03:

SGX Nifty

On Tuesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — declined 71 points or 0.4 percent to 18,149.5, thereby indicating a negative start to the trading session.

Global Markets

Benchmark indices on Wall Street fell overnight as banking concerns returned ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later tonight.

The Dow Jones fell over 350 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 1.1 percent each, extending losses for the second day in a row. Regional banks continued to decline with PacWest and Western Alliance shares dropping 27 percent and 15 percent respectively.

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which kicked off Tuesday, is expected to conclude with the central bank announcing another quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in an 85 percent chance of a hike.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com advises traders to avoid aggressive long positions on the Nifty 50 index, citing an unfavourable risk-reward ratio. Instead, he wants traders to wait for a corrective decline and then enter on supports. Immediate supports, according to Jain will be near 18,030 and 17,930, while resistance is seen around 18,260. "The stock specific activity continues to be robust and hence, one can focus on stock specific opportunities for now," he said.

LKP's Shah further states that in case the index manages to cross 18,200 on the upside, it can lead to further short covering towards 18,400. He sees downside support for the Nifty 50 around 18,000, where aggressive put writing is visible. "The undertone remains bullish and one should keep a buy-on-dip approach," he said.

However, Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com believes that the probability of the Nifty 50 scaling all-time highs is low, compared to the probability of it breaking below the March 20 low of 16,828. He sees support for the index at 17,800 and 17,550, while upside resistance is between 18,134 and 18,250.

Key Levels To Track

For tomorrow's weekly options expiry, the 18,200 strike call of the Nifty 50 added 47.8 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 18,300 call, which added 26 lakh shares.

Open Interest addition was also seen in the 18,000 call (24.4 lakh) and 18,250 call (14.5 lakh shares).

On the other side, the 18,100 put added 55.8 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 18,200 put added 35.4 lakh shares in Open Interest.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 1.15 from 1.32 on Friday. No stocks are in the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

Fresh Longs (Increase In Price and Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Oracle Financial2,54,4003,652.951.84%12.77%
ONGC5,59,25,100165.453.57%10.66%
PFC6,17,58,200174.652.07%9.71%
InterGlobe Aviation32,93,1002,082.852.36%7.84%
Astral17,76,6471,489.402.25%7.22%

Fresh Shorts (Decrease In Price and Increase In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Coforge9,11,1004,138.10-0.99%52.46%
United Breweries16,35,6001,444.95-2.53%26.67%
Atul2,36,8506,580.00-3.75%17.14%
Hero Moto36,75,9002,511.80-2.20%12.45%
Havells57,89,0001,231.70-0.09%11.11%

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