* US-Iran talks in Islamabad may resume, calming oil
markets
* US PPI up less than expected; little impact on bond
market
* Fed rate cut expectations fade, yield curve flattens
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were
steady to modestly firmer on Tuesday, lifted by optimism that
the Iran war could wind down soon, though trading remained
subdued as investors consolidated holdings and awaited clearer
developments on the conflict.
The United States and Iran could resume talks in Islamabad this
week to end the war, sources told Reuters on Tuesday, after the
collapse of weekend negotiations prompted U.S. President Donald
Trump to order a blockade on Iranian ports.
While the U.S. blockade drew angry rhetoric from Iran, signs
that diplomatic engagement might continue helped calm oil
markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 on Tuesday.
Brent crude futures were last down 3.6% at $95.75
per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude last
changed hands at $93.16 a barrel, down 6% on the day.
"Everything is still in wait-and-see mode, but we do have a
little bit of optimism in the market right now. It's obvious
that both the U.S. and Iran want to have some conclusion to
this, and they're working towards that," said Jim Barnes,
director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn,
Pennsylvania.
"Before, it seemed as if they were both trying to get the
upper hand to some extent, and that's where the uncertainty kept
increasing. Now, that uncertainty has somewhat dissipated and
the market is finding comfort that a deal is going to be reached
at some point," Barnes said.
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield was
down 1.6 basis points at 4.281%. U.S. 30-year yields
slipped 1.4 bps to 4.886% .
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which
reflects interest-rate expectations, also dipped, down about a
basis point at 3.772%.
Data showing a lower-than-expected increase in U.S. producer
prices for March had little impact on Treasuries, with the
market more focused on developments and when hostilities there
would end.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5%
last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in February,
data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI
accelerating 1.1% after a previously reported 0.7% gain in
February.
In the 12 months through March, the PPI advanced 4.0% after
increasing 3.4% in February. A Reuters poll forecast showed a
year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
Following the PPI data, U.S. rate futures have priced out
expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this
year, factoring in just seven bps of easing, compared with about
55 bps before the Iran war, according to LSEG estimates.
Another 13 bps of rate declines are implied next year, LSEG
data showed.
In other pockets of the bond market, the U.S. yield curve
flattened on Tuesday, with the gap between two-year and 10-year
yields at 50.1 bps, compared with 51.7 bps late
on Monday.
The curve exhibited a bull-flattening move as a result of
long-term yields falling faster than those on the short end. It
is consistent with expectations that the Fed will likely remain
on hold for the rest of the year. The curve also reflects
worries about holding longer-dated debt exposed to persistent
inflation and huge fiscal deficits.