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Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari suggests potential rate cuts
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Weak auction of 10-year notes pushes yields higher
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Trump to nominate Fed Board member by week's end
(Updates to afternoon trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury
yields were higher on Wednesday, after a weak auction of 10-year
notes by the Treasury, while the market awaits President Donald
Trump's choice to fill a slot on the Federal Reserve's Board of
Governors.
Yields extended their gains after a $42 billion auction in
10-year notes was seen as soft by analysts, with demand at 2.35
times the notes on sale the weakest in a year. Primary dealers
took 16.2% of the sale, the highest percentage in a year and
indicative of slack demand, according to Lou Brien, strategist
at DRW Trading in Chicago.
The sale follows a somewhat disappointing auction of $58 billion
in three-year notes on Tuesday and comes ahead of a
$25 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
"It was another kind of poorly subscribed auction ... between
record size and relatively expensive rates for the type of
environment we're in, it wasn't very conducive to good sales
this week," said Kim Rupert, managing director, global fixed
income at Action Economics in San Francisco.
"And the market is still trying to digest the employment
report, and then the ISM services yesterday, all of the Fed
goings on, so I think investors were just a little bit more
hesitant to take down this paper."
Prior to the auction, yields briefly spiked, with the 10-year
yield hitting a session high of 4.283% and coincided with a
sharp move lower in Treasury futures, which Rupert said
could have been due to hedging in case of a poor auction or
someone trying to "cheapen up" the market heading into the
sale.
Yields have been moving lower in recent sessions, including
a steep drop on Friday, following a weak government payrolls
report and an announcement from the Fed that Governor Adriana
Kugler was resigning early, which bolstered market expectations
for a rate cut from the central bank at its September meeting.
Data on Tuesday, however, from the Institute for Supply
Management showed a slowing in the services sector and indicated
price pressures had increased. That helped to cool expectations
for a cut and sent yields on shorter-dated yields higher.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 2.8 basis points to 4.224% and was poised to
snap a four-session streak of declines.
Trump said on Tuesday he will decide on a nominee to fill
Kugler's vacancy, after she leaves on Friday, by the end of the
week.
The yield on the 30-year bond climbed 4.4
basis points to 4.813%.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday the
Fed may need to cut rates in the near term to account for a
slowing economy, although it remains unclear how long it will
take for the effect of tariffs to become apparent.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that the moderation in
the pace of hiring in Friday's employment data was "concerning,"
while Boston Fed President Susan Collins said uncertainty leads
to a "wait and see" approach to price setting.
A part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap
between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes
that market participants monitor as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 51.7 basis points after hitting
a 2-1/2 week high of 54.9 on Monday.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, shed 0.8 basis point to 3.708%.
Market expectations for a September rate cut of at least 25
basis points from the Fed stood at 95.2%, up from the 92.9% in
the prior session and well above the 46.7% from a week ago,
according to CME's FedWatch Tool.