(Updates as of 14:13 EDT)
By Matt Tracy
WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
rose further on Wednesday as traders speculated that stubborn
U.S. inflation evident in recent data may convince the Federal
Reserve to hold off cutting rates until after June, the
timeframe currently priced in by markets.
Benchmark 10-year notes yields were last up 3.1
basis points (bps) on the day at 4.187%, marking three
consecutive days of increases. Two-year yields were
little changed at 4.615%.
This follows Tuesday's report showing the consumer price
index (CPI) rising 0.4% last month, driven largely by higher
costs for gasoline and shelter. So-called core prices -
excluding food and energy prices - also gained 0.4%. Headline
prices rose 3.2% on an annual basis, while core prices gained
3.8%.
Traders in Fed funds futures reduced bets that the Fed will
cut rates by June to 66.7%, from 70% on Tuesday, according to
the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
No Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week ahead
of the central bank's March 19-20 meeting.
"This has been the dynamic since December - the battle
between market expectations of what the Fed is going to do and
the Fed's expectations of themselves," said Jack McIntyre,
portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year notes narrowed to minus 43.4 basis points
from minus 44 basis points on Tuesday.
The market is closely watching new data for the path of U.S.
economic growth, which in turn informs the central bank's plans
for rate cuts. Tuesday's CPI and previous reports had raised
concerns that inflation was heating back up.
"The timing and pace (of inflation) is what's a little
frustrating but I still think things are moving in the right
direction," McIntyre said.
New data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday
showed mortgage applications increased 7.1% for the week ending
March 8 from a week earlier. This adds to market concerns that
the Fed may hold off on rate cuts beyond previous expectations,
according to McIntyre.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady when it meets next
week, with market focus on policymakers' updated economic and
interest rate projections.
The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday auctioned $22 billion in
30-year bonds drawing a high yield of 4.331% and a
bid-to-cover ratio of 2.47, slightly higher than the February
average of 2.40 and the 2.39 average for the last 10 auctions of
30-year bonds.
The relatively strong 30-year action followed Tuesday's
lackluster $39 billion auction of 10-year notes, which likely
contributed to the continued rise in 10-year yields, according
to Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital
Management.
"There were some concerns about how this 30-year auction
was going to come in," said LeBas."There were a lot of question
marks around whether it prices at 4.36% or 4.33%."
The yield on existing 30-year bonds ticked down 1.2
basis points to 4.338% after the auction from 4.349% before.
The next major data points watched by traders will come on
Thursday. These include the producer price index and retail
sales for February, as well as the latest initial jobless claims
for the week ending March 9.
Traders are also following the Bank of Japan and its
upcoming meetings on March 18 and 19, according to LeBas, which
could result in the central bank raising interest rates from
their current minus 0.1% level.
"There's a decent chance of using their incoming
meetings to move from ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to LIRP
(low interest rate policy)," LeBas said.
"Very generally, a bank or an asset manager doesn't care
if they buy a 10-year Japanese and hedge it back into dollars or
buy a 10-year dollar. So if Japan rises, that's going to pull
back U.S. yields."