NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Tuesday, as investors assessed the likelihood that the U.S.
economy will be able to avoid a recession and awaited a two-year
note auction for signs of investor demand.
The closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year
Treasury notes, considered a gauge of growth
expectations, reduced its inversion to the narrowest gap in
three weeks. It was last at minus-8.7 basis points versus
minus-12.4 bps late on Monday.
The narrower inversion suggested that the bond market is
pricing in the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which is likely
to start next month.
Investors digested the day's economic data, with 10-year
yields dipping briefly after data showing U.S. single-family
home prices fell in June, leading to the smallest annual
increase in nearly a year.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was last up 2.4 bps at 3.844%. The yield on the
30-year bond rose 3.2 bps to 4.139%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest-rate expectations,
was flat at 3.928%.
A separate report showed U.S. consumer confidence rose in
August, but that Americans are becoming more anxious about the
labor market.
The two-year note auction is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
Investors have been trying to gauge how aggressive the Fed
may be in cutting interest rates to avoid a recession.
"The question is how slow is the economy slowing. That's
going to determine how fast the Fed is going to ease," said Stan
Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York.
"Generally over the last two weeks or so the odds of a 50
(bps cut) have climbed higher. As a consequence, the Treasury
market and other sovereign yields are saying if central banks
are easing faster, the odds of a recession are going to be going
down."
Yields dropped last week after the Fed signaled in Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, that it was ready to cut rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated an imminent start to a
rate cut from the central bank, noting a further cooling in the
labor market would be unwelcome while signaling confidence
inflation is within reach of its 2% target.
Traders were last betting on either a 25-basis point or a
50-basis point interest-rate cut in September. Odds of a 25-bps
cut stand at about 71%, while odds of a 50-bps cut are at about
29%, according to CME Group's Fed Watch tool.