(Writes throughout with auction results, analyst quote, context)
By Tatiana Bautzer
NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - Yields on benchmark U.S.
Treasuries were slightly lower on Wednesday afternoon, as oil
prices rose and markets assessed the timing of potential
interest rate cuts.
Yields on the longer-term Treasuries rose during the day,
but receded in afternoon trading. The U.S. 10-year Treasury
note's yield was down 0.6 basis point to 4.287%,
and the 30-year bond yield was flat at 4.831%
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was
down 1.1 basis point at 3.773%.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after sharp declines over the
last days. Investors considered strong U.S. energy demand and
assessed the stability of the truce in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
told a U.S. Senate panel on Wednesday
that tariff plans may well just cause a one-time jump in
prices, but the risk it could cause more persistent inflation is
large enough for the central bank to be careful in considering
further rate cuts. Debate over the timing for the first rate
cuts of the year has been growing since Fed officials appointed
by President Donald Trump, such as Michelle Bowman and
Christopher Waller, discussed the chance of rate cuts beginning
as soon as July.
"Our base case scenario is still the first rate cut of the
year in September, but we are closely following the discussions
among Fed officials ahead of the July meeting and Jackson Hole
Conference," said Ed Acton, Citigroup's U.S. rates strategist.
Several Fed officials are expected to speak publicly on
Thursday, such as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President
Thomas Barkin, Cleveland's Fed president Beth Hammack, board
governor Michael Barr and Minneapolis' Fed president Neel
Kashkari.
CME's FedWatch tool shows markets project a 22% chance of
the first rate cut at the July meeting and 90% chance of cuts in
September. Markets will be looking for signs of deceleration
that could skew the odds to more urgent timing.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release the final
estimate for first-quarter Gross Domestic Product. The Labor
Department will also release initial unemployment claims.
The most important data will come on Friday, with the Personal
Consumption Expenditure price index for May, said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New
York. "Markets do not have now a lot of momentum in either
direction right now, data may change that", he added.
Trump said on Wednesday morning during a NATO meeting in the
Netherlands he is already considering candidates to replace
Powell next year when his term ends.
The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion in 5-year notes auction, with
tepid demand and a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio. Yields on the 5-year
notes were flat in afternoon trading, at 3.842%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 51.4 basis points.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.307% after closing at 2.3% on June 24.
The U.S. dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap
, seen by some as a better gauge of inflation
expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed's
quantitative easing, was last at 2.471%.