NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
slightly higher on Tuesday amid low trading volumes and ahead of
new government debt issuance, with inflation data out of Canada
creating some jitters among U.S. debt investors.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, were moving
lower in early morning trade but the release of Canada inflation
data, which surprised on the upside, reversed that trend.
Later on Tuesday, the Treasury will sell $69 billion in
two-year Treasury notes. While Treasury auctions this month have
gone well, with buyers paying up to absorb issuance, the picture
could be more complicated for two-year paper, which tends to be
more closely linked to monetary policy expectations.
"Treasuries had a good bid this morning until the CPI
(consumer price index) data in Canada came out and wiped away
the Treasury rally," said Tony Farren, managing director at
Mischler Financial Group.
Trading volumes were "very low" on Tuesday, he added, which
may complicate the scheduled sale of $183 billion in coupon debt
by the Treasury, split between two-year notes on Tuesday, and
five- and seven-year notes on Wednesday and Thursday.
Fed officials have reiterated in recent days that more
inflation data was needed to warrant a shift to a less
restrictive monetary policy stance, as the central bank seeks to
tame inflation without creating too much economic damage.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday said
that holding the policy rate steady "for some time" will
probably be enough to bring inflation under control, but also
repeated her willingness to raise borrowing costs if needed.
"With the Fed outlook currently defined by the (Federal Open
Market Committee) FOMC's data dependent mantra, investors may
require a bit of a concession" for the two-year auction,
strategists at BMO Capital Markets said in a note.
A key data point for investors will come on Friday with the
release of May personal consumption expenditure data, which may
give more clues on the extent of any interest rate cuts by the
U.S. central bank later this year.
On Tuesday, traders of futures contracts tied to the Fed's
policy rate were betting on nearly two 25 basis point rate cuts
this year, with a first cut in September seen as having a 60%
probability.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.249%, slightly
higher than on Monday. Two-year yields were up just over one
basis point at 4.748%.
The gap between two- and ten-year yields remained deeply
negative at about minus 50 basis points - larger than on Monday.
An inversion in that part of the yield curve, which occurs
when shorter-dated Treasuries yield more than longer-dated ones,
has historically signalled a recession is coming.