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TREASURIES-US yields on long end drift higher after strong labor market data
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TREASURIES-US yields on long end drift higher after strong labor market data
May 2, 2024 8:42 AM

NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. longer-dated Treasury

yields edged higher in choppy trading on Thursday after steep

falls the previous session, benefiting from

stronger-than-expected labor market data that reinforced the

view that the Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates

to later this year.

In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield

rose 3.3 basis points (bps) to 4.622%. On Wednesday,

the yield fell as low as 4.581%, a more than one-week low.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up

5.2 bps at 4.762%.

U.S. shorter-term yields were flat to slightly lower,

however, following big moves late on Wednesday as the Fed

affirmed its patient stance on starting its easing cycle.

Treasury yields were overall bolstered by data showing

initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at

a seasonally adjusted 208,000 for the week ended April 27.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims in the

latest week.

At the same, a separate report showed unit U.S. labor costs

- the price of labor per single unit of output - jumped to a

4.7% rate in the fist quarter after being unchanged in the

previous three months. Labor costs increased at a 1.8% pace from

a year ago.

"The overarching theme in the bond market is still 'higher

for longer' (in interest rates)," said Kevin Flanagan, head of

fixed income strategy at WisdomTree in New York. "(Thursday) we

had jobless claims that were at historically low levels, while

unit labor costs actually rose more than expected. The Fed

chairman (Jerome Powell) mentioned that employment is a key part

of the decision-making process, so the two numbers we got that

were labor market-related seemingly don't argue for a rate cut."

The Fed on Wednesday kept interest rate steady, but noted

that it does not expect to reduce interest rates any time soon

until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving

sustainably towards 2% target.

Powell was also less hawkish, echoing the central bank

statement that kept the fed funds rate at the 5.25%-5.50 range.

On the short end of the curve, the two-year U.S. Treasury

yield, which typically reflects interest rate moves, was down

2.3 bps at 4.916%.

The U.S. yield curve, meanwhile, steepened or narrowed its

inversion. The spread between U.S. two- and 10-year yields was

minus 29.4 bps, from minus 33.6 bps late on

Wednesday.

This curve, effectively a "bear steepener," shows a scenario

in which long-term interest rates are rising faster than short

term ones, reflecting expectations of inflation continuing to

remain elevated. To a certain extent, it also indicates a belief

the Fed could hike interest rates again to battle inflation,

although this is a minority view.

Post-data and after the Fed meeting and statements on

Wednesday, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68% chance of a

rate cut in November, compared with 67% a week go, according to

CME's FedWatch tool. It was more or less 50% in September and

about 80% in December.

The rate futures market has also priced in just one rate cut

of 25 bps this year, from as much as six at the beginning of the

year.

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