(Updates to afternoon trading)
* June producer prices fell 0.3%
* Markets pricing in 10.2% chance of July rate hike
* Fed's Williams says inflation may have crested
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields declined
on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note poised
for its first consecutive daily declines in nearly three weeks,
after a second straight day of economic data showed an easing of
price pressures.
The Labor Department said the Producer Price Index for final
demand dropped 0.3% last month, below the estimate of economists
polled by Reuters that called for an unchanged reading, after a
downwardly revised 0.6% increase in May.
In the 12 months through June, the PPI increased 5.5% after
rising 6.0% in May.
The softer-than-expected data followed the release on Tuesday of
the Consumer Price Index report, which showed inflation
moderated in June.
"What's going on is that the numbers look decent from the
standpoint of the Fed and what (Chairman Kevin) Warsh may do,
and for the most part, people are sort of not believing it
because they don't see any end to this conflict with Iran," said
Tom di Galoma, managing director of global rates trading at
Mischler Financial Group in Stamford, Connecticut.
"So the conflict is going to get worse and so the fall in
CPI and PPI is really kind of a temporary thing."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 4 basis points to 4.545% and was on pace for
its first back-to-back daily decline since June 26.
IRAN TENSIONS CLOUD OUTLOOK
Energy prices have come down in recent weeks on expectations
that a durable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and
Iran. However, hostilities have intensified in recent days and
caused a reversal in crude prices to one-month highs.
U.S. crude fell 0.11% to $79.25 a barrel and Brent
fell to $84.70 per barrel, down 0.04% on the day, easing
from earlier highs in part due to a smaller-than-expected drop
in U.S. crude oil inventories.
The recent inflation readings have led to a drop in expectations
that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its
policy meeting later this month, with markets now pricing in a
10.2% chance for a hike of at least 25 basis points, down from
more than 40% on Monday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Expectations for an increase at the September meeting, however,
are still roughly 50%.
The yield on the 30-year bond shed 1.2 basis
points to 5.082%.
CENTRAL BANK AWAITS MORE PROOF
Top Fed officials, including Warsh, on Tuesday welcomed the
cooler CPI data, but said they would need more such readings to
feel confident that price pressures are truly easing.
Warsh on Wednesday told U.S. lawmakers he feels the Fed is not
meeting its price-stability mandate, but declined to give any
specifics on how or when he would address the issue.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 41.9 basis points.
On Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams said that
while inflation is "unquestionably too high," there are reasons
to believe it may have crested and should soon start subsiding,
with monetary policy well positioned to guide inflation back to
the central bank's 2% target.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook took a more hawkish stance,
and said she is "prepared to act" if inflation does not soon
begin to slow, though she is willing to wait "a bit more time"
for that to happen.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, tumbled 6.9 basis points to 4.124% and was set for its
biggest two-day drop since late March.
The Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" report that economic
activity increased slightly in recent weeks, employment rose,
and companies and households indicated that inflation may have
improved.
The breakeven rate on 5-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.254% after closing at 2.284% on Tuesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.235%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.