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TREASURIES-US yields rise as traders wait on data, supply
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TREASURIES-US yields rise as traders wait on data, supply
Apr 22, 2024 7:46 AM

April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday

as investors waited on data for new clues on when the Federal

Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates, and before

the Treasury will sell $183 billion in new supply.

Yields have risen to five-month highs since

hotter-than-expected consumer price pressures for March released

earlier this month dashed hopes that elevated prices in January

and February were an anomaly, and raised the prospect that

inflation may remain sticky for some time.

Policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell last week backed

away from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be

cut, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive

for longer.

With a strong labor market also buoying the economy, that

leaves the U.S. central bank and markets waiting on data for the

next clues on direction.

"Markets are going to be trying to carve out some new ranges

ahead of GDP and PCE data late in the week but really the only

thing to focus on ahead of that is supply," said Gennadiy

Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New

York.

This week's main economic focuses will be gross domestic

product (GDP) data on Thursday and Personal Consumption

Expenditures (PCE) on Friday. The PCE data is expected to show

that core prices rose by 0.3% in March for an annual gain of

2.7%.

Demand for Treasuries will also be tested when the Treasury

sells $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in

five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes

on Thursday.

The recent run-up in yields, however, could leave the market

vulnerable to a large snapback if economic data disappoints.

"Markets are a little bit over-enthusiastic about economic

data recently," said Goldberg. "The risk for markets though is

that as we've carved out these new ranges, any sort of weakness

in economic data could actually reverse the recent moves quite

violently."

Benchmark 10-year note yields rose two basis

points to 4.639%. They are holding just below the 4.696% level

reached on April 16, which if broken would be the highest since

early November. Two-year yields were little changed

on the day at 4.976%. They reached 5.012% on April 11, the

highest since mid-November.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and

10-year notes narrowed by three basis points to

minus 34 basis points.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only 40 basis

points of easing this year and see the first cut as most likely

in September or November. They had previously priced in three 25

basis point rate cuts this year, beginning in June.

Fed officials are now in a blackout period before the April

30/May 1 meeting.

Concerns about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle

East remain a wild card that could boost demand for Treasuries

and drag yields lower.

At least five rockets were launched from Iraq's town of

Zummar towards a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria on

Sunday, two Iraqi security sources and a U.S. official told

Reuters.

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