April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday
as investors waited on data for new clues on when the Federal
Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates, and before
the Treasury will sell $183 billion in new supply.
Yields have risen to five-month highs since
hotter-than-expected consumer price pressures for March released
earlier this month dashed hopes that elevated prices in January
and February were an anomaly, and raised the prospect that
inflation may remain sticky for some time.
Policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell last week backed
away from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be
cut, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive
for longer.
With a strong labor market also buoying the economy, that
leaves the U.S. central bank and markets waiting on data for the
next clues on direction.
"Markets are going to be trying to carve out some new ranges
ahead of GDP and PCE data late in the week but really the only
thing to focus on ahead of that is supply," said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New
York.
This week's main economic focuses will be gross domestic
product (GDP) data on Thursday and Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE) on Friday. The PCE data is expected to show
that core prices rose by 0.3% in March for an annual gain of
2.7%.
Demand for Treasuries will also be tested when the Treasury
sells $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in
five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes
on Thursday.
The recent run-up in yields, however, could leave the market
vulnerable to a large snapback if economic data disappoints.
"Markets are a little bit over-enthusiastic about economic
data recently," said Goldberg. "The risk for markets though is
that as we've carved out these new ranges, any sort of weakness
in economic data could actually reverse the recent moves quite
violently."
Benchmark 10-year note yields rose two basis
points to 4.639%. They are holding just below the 4.696% level
reached on April 16, which if broken would be the highest since
early November. Two-year yields were little changed
on the day at 4.976%. They reached 5.012% on April 11, the
highest since mid-November.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year notes narrowed by three basis points to
minus 34 basis points.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in only 40 basis
points of easing this year and see the first cut as most likely
in September or November. They had previously priced in three 25
basis point rate cuts this year, beginning in June.
Fed officials are now in a blackout period before the April
30/May 1 meeting.
Concerns about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle
East remain a wild card that could boost demand for Treasuries
and drag yields lower.
At least five rockets were launched from Iraq's town of
Zummar towards a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria on
Sunday, two Iraqi security sources and a U.S. official told
Reuters.