*
Markets speculate about potential announcement by
president
Donald Trump of his choice to replace Powell
*
Data shows more people are staying out of work longer
*
Focus on PCE data expected for Friday after first-quarter
GDP
revision
*
Difference in yields between 2-year and 10-year US
Treasuries
the largest in a month
(Updates prices, adds data on yield curve)
By Tatiana Bautzer
NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - Yields on U.S. Treasuries
eased on Thursday as markets considered weak jobs data and
reports that President Donald Trump could name a replacement for
Fed Chair Jerome Powell soon, which fueled speculation of faster
interest rate cuts.
"You are starting to see some cracks in the labor market,
and that may give some confidence to markets that the Fed can
begin easing in September," said Stan Shipley, fixed income
strategist at Evercore ISI in New York.
The possibility Trump could nominate Powell's replacement
before his term as Federal Reserve chair ends in May 2026
pressured yields during Thursday's session, said Ian Lyngen,
head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. Investors
believe a "shadow" Fed chair could influence monetary policy.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering
selecting Powell's replacement in the next few months.
"Messaging from a dovish incoming Chair could potentially
overshadow the hawkish skew to Powell's wait-and-see signals,"
Lyngen said in a note sent to clients.
Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both
Trump appointees, said recently that they would be open to a
potential interest rate cut as soon as July.
But Powell and other officials such as Richmond Fed
President Thomas Barkin have said the best course is to wait as
tariffs are very likely to push inflation up over the coming
months.
Markets have been slowly increasing the odds of a rate cut
decision at July's meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch
tool. On Thursday, this chance was at 22%. Investors predict a
95% chance of lower rates in September.
But for a rate cut to materialize in July, "we would need
really awful job-market news for that to happen," Shipley added.
Other data released on Thursday also showed signs of a
deceleration in the U.S. economy.
First-quarter GDP was revised lower, although the data did
not impact the Treasury market. Investors will be attentive to
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data for May on
Friday.
STEEPER CURVE
The closely watched yield curve between two- and 10-year
U.S. Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of
economic expectations, was at 53.1 basis points, the most
positive level in more than a month.
The steepening of the yield curve, as the widening is
known, happened mainly because yields fell faster for
shorter-term securities than at the longer end. Investors on the
longer end are seeking higher yields to deal with uncertainties
such as fiscal sustainability and longer term inflationary
pressure.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
also fell 4.3 basis points to 4.25%. The yield on
the 30-year bond fell 3.1 basis points to 4.811%.