(Updates as of 1040 ET)
By Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
mainly steady on Friday after bobbling on news that producer
prices were flat in September, avoiding an inflation curve ball
for the Federal Reserve before it must decide how much more to
ease at its next meeting.
The unchanged reading in the producer price index for final
demand last month followed an unrevised 0.2% gain in August, the
Labor Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast the PPI edging up 0.1%. In the 12 months through
September, the PPI increased 1.8%, after climbing 1.9% in
August, more than the expected 1.6% rise.
The data followed news on Thursday that consumer prices rose
slightly more than expected in September, lifted by higher food
costs. The two reports supported views the Federal Reserve would
cut interest rates again after September's aggressive 50-basis
point reduction, but probably by less.
"It turned out to be just fractionally hotter than we
expected. It boosted the year-over-year rate a little bit," said
Kim Rupert, managing director, fixed income at Action Economics
in San Francisco.
"So, in combination with everything else we've seen
between the GDP upward revision to income, obviously the
employment report, I think the Fed still is going to cut rates
but just only needs to cut by 25 (bp) over the next two
meetings,"
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was
off 0.2 basis points from late Thursday at 4.092%, just below
where it stood before the PPI was released.
The 30-year bond yield was up 1.1 basis points
to 4.3962% and the 2-year note yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, was off 3.5 bp at
3.964%.
Later in the morning, the release of the University of
Michigan preliminary October consumer sentiment index showing a
fall to 68.9 from 70.1 in September, barely moved the needle for
the bond market.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 12.6 basis points, steeper than
late Thursday's +10.2 bp.
Based on the fed funds futures term structure,
traders see an 88% chance of a 25 bps ease in the policy rate at
the central bank's November meeting, while the odds for a
quarter-point cut were 85% late on Thursday. The rate has been
in a 4.75%-5.0% target range since the Fed cut last month.
The futures market also showed about 49 bps of easing this
year, down from more than 50 bps early this week. It priced in
almost 100 bps of Fed cuts in 2025, which was a sharp drop from
the roughly 200-250 bps of reductions estimated prior to last
Friday's blockbuster U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which reset
Fed easing expectations.
The Treasuries market is closed on Monday for Columbus
Day.