May 19 (Reuters) - Yields on U.S. Treasuries ticked
lower in early Tuesday trading after another overnight pause in
the Iran conflict and a dip in oil prices.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note
was last down less than a basis point (bp) at 4.617%. It had
climbed as high as 4.659% on Monday, which was its highest level
in 15 months.
The two-year Treasury note's yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Federal Reserve, was last down 1.2 bps at 4.078%. It reached a
14-month high of 4.105% early Monday.
Yields climbed in overnight Monday trading caused by a
sell-off in U.S. and global bond markets following a rise in
crude oil prices past $111 per barrel. Rising oil prices on
Monday and last week exacerbated bond investors' inflation
concerns, as deal talks in the ongoing conflict with Iran showed
little progress.
Oil prices were down slightly on Tuesday, with crude oil
prices just over $110 per barrel.
The 30-year Treasury bond's yield, which is seen
as a barometer of political risk, was up 2.9 bps to above 5.15%
after reaching its highest level in over a year on Monday.
Analysts anticipate the 30-year's yield could rise further in
the coming weeks.
"People are not going to want to add duration risk until
there's clarity around the Middle East," said Vail Hartman, U.S.
rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
"I wouldn't be surprised if the sell-off extended and ...
new yield peaks established before we see a wave of buying," he
added.
Data last week showed U.S. inflation was accelerating due
to rising energy prices, with market participants worried that
even a near-term end to the war may not bring energy prices
down.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was last at 53.51 bps.
Investors are now pricing in a 46.6% chance that the Fed
could raise rates in December, and a 94.2% chance it maintains
current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME
FedWatch tool.
The Treasury Department is slated to auction 20-year
bonds on Wednesday, which market participants will
watch closely for signs of cooling investor demand.