04:29 PM EDT, 08/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday eked out a new record close, rising by less than two points as higher commodity prices and gains in Guardian Capital Group ( GRCGF ) and some other financial stocks just about outweighed a report from Statistics Canada that this nation recorded a huge deficit in goods and services trade for the second quarter.

There was a late mini rally on the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index to bring up a gain of just 1.8 points from Wednesday's record close to 28,434,80, the fourth record finish in the last five sessions even amid mixed sectors. Only the Battery Metals Index was down near 1%, while only Info Tech was up by more than 1%.

Of commodities, gold moved higher late afternoon Friday as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates pushed the dollar down. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $27.80 to US$3,476.40 per ounce, the highest since Aug. 8.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose, but remained firmly rangebound, as traders anticipate the coming end of high-demand U.S. summer driving season while waiting to see if India will continue to defy 50% secondary sanctions on its imports into the U.S. for buying Russian oil. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $0.45 to settle at US$64.60 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.52 to US$68.57.

Canada's current account deteriorated to a record shortfall of $19.5 billion in the second quarter, up from just $800 million in the first quarter, Shelly Kaushik, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, said exports are likely to remain under pressure amid ongoing trade talks with the United States. "Improvements in services trade and the primary income account were not enough to offset the worsening in goods trade, while the secondary income deficit also widened," Kaushik added.

Kaushik noted trade tensions also left their mark on the capital account: there was a net outflow of $16.8 billion from Canadian securities, the second largest on record after 2007. Canadian investors bought a net $26.8 billion of foreign securities, down from an even larger flow in Q1. "The trade war has had a significant impact on Canada's current account. We expect to see more evidence of that impact in Friday's Q2 GDP report," Kaushik said.

In the financials galaxy, Guardian Capital Group ( GRCGF ) was up 45% and hit a fresh 52-week high after saying Thursday it is going private after accepting Desjardins Global Asset Management's offer to acquire it in a $1.7 billion deal.

Meanwhile, CIBC (CM.TO, CM) was up 2% and posted a fresh 52-week high as it reported an earnings and revenue beat for the third quarter, boosted by a strong core business performance.

But Toronto-Dominion Bank ( MLWIQXX ) (TD.TO. TD) was down 4.5% despite swinging to a profit for the third quarter as it continues to recover from a drug money laundering scandal in the United States and booked the sale of its investment in The Charles Schwab Corporation earlier this year.

National Bank said although TD's Q3 EPS exceeded forecasts, the stock reacted negatively. In its view, this outcome reflected a variety of factors: perceived quality of the "beat", which was primarily credit-driven; despite lower PCLs this quarter, management commentary that suggested a reversion to a higher loss rate was expected; and U.S. balance sheet repositioning and investment spending across the bank that raises growth questions beyond this year's "transition" period. National Bank kept it sector-perform rating on TD shares but its target edged up to $100 From $99.00 at National Bank.

The last of the regional banks, Laurentian (L.TO), will report its third-quarter earnings on Friday. National Bank is forecasting cash EPS of $0.70 compared to a consensus $0.73. Among key themes, National Bank will be look out for include: if seasonal weakness of Inventory Finance loans weighs on NIM [net interest margin]; if investment spending weighs on efficiency; and if credit performance has been steady.

National Bank noted Laurentian's NIM has come in ahead of guidance/forecasts in each of the past two quarters, as growth in the higher margin equipment/inventory finance businesses has been strong (+8% year over year for the first half of 25). For Q3, management has guided towards a moderation in margins, given a seasonal reduction in inventory finance loans. National forecasts a near 5% sequential contraction in the equipment/inventory finance businesses, resulting in NIM compression of 2bps Q/Q.

In Laurentian's previous third-quarter, National Bank noted, the bank beat consensus and National Bank Financial estimates "handily", primarily due to a sharp drop in expenses (down 5% Q/Q and down 2% Y/Y). However, it said, this expense beat was primarily due to a 25% Y/Y decline in performance based compensation. Excluding this item, expenses would have been +1% Y/Y (300 bps impact). For the second half of 2025, National noted LB expects elevated expenses, as the company steps up investments in technology/IT spending. National estimates a Q3 NIX ratio of 76%, with negative operating leverage of minus 3%.

National noted LB's PCLs have come in line or lower than expected in each of the first two quarters of the year (i.e., 0% below forecast during Q1 2025, 4% lower during Q2). LB attributes this to its highly secured lending model, where near 93% of total loans are collateralized, and a mortgage portfolio with a large proportion of insured loans (i.e, 61% of res. Mortgages, 32% of CRE are insured). For Q3 2025, management has maintained its PCL ratio guidance in the high-teens (NBFe at 18 bps). Moreover, National noted that unlike the Big-6 banks, LB has not made material additions to its performing provisions this year (or 2024, for that matter). Rather, National added, it has released provisions in 6 of the last 8 quarters, including a cumulative $37 million over Q2 2024 to Q1 2025.