04:06 PM EDT, 09/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its ninth record close in the last 10 sessions, boosted by commentary on the Canadian economy from the likes of CIBC, which said that "overall, it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter", though it did add growth will be "fairly tepid" over the second half of 2025 due to tariffs uncertainty.

Even with commodity prices lower, the resources heavy TSX was up 164.53 points or 0.55% at 28,915.89, with most sectors higher. Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.1% and Info Tech up 2.1%. Base Metals were down 1%, and Health Care modestly lower.

Of commodities, the front month Comex gold for September delivery settled down US$27.40 per troy ounce, or 0.76%, at US$3,565.80.

Also, Bloomberg noted, oil declined on concerns that OPEC+ will once again bolster supply at a meeting on Sunday, compounding fears of higher volumes later in the year. It noted West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.8% to settle near US$64.50 a barrel, building on an earlier decline after softer than expected US jobs data added to concerns demand may wane. Prices slumped Wednesday following a report that OPEC and its allies would consider fresh increases at a weekend policy meeting.

On the economy, Statistics Canada early Thursday said this nation's merchandise trade deficit with the world had narrowed, and trade surplus with the United States widened in July.

Statistics Canada noted the global deficit narrowed to $4.9 billion in July from $6.0 billion in June as merchandise exports rose 0.9%, while imports were down 0.7% month over month. July's trade deficit was slightly lower than the $5.2 billion consensus deficit provided by MUFG.

Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $6.7 billion in July, from $3.7 billion in June, marking the largest surplus since March 2025, added StatsCan. Exports to the U.S. increased 5.0% month over month in July, in part because of higher exports of crude oil and passenger cars. Imports from the U.S. fell 2.2% in July 2025, a fourth decrease in five months.

"Overall," CIBC said, "it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter, but that doesn't mean that the negatives from this year's tariff shock are behind us. Exports in the second quarter were likely below the underlying trend, due to earlier tariff front-running, and so the recent improvement is simply returning us to a new, lower, trend level. While CUSMA exemptions are helping stabilise exports in many areas, sectors exposed to specific tariffs (notably steel and aluminum) continue to suffer. Moreover, the negative impact of trade uncertainty on business investment, hiring and, by extension, consumer spending, will persist for longer and likely keep overall GDP growth fairly tepid during the second half of the year."

Elsewhere, TD Economics said the combination of rising exports and falling imports on the month should allow net trade to bounce back after an "exceptionally weak" showing in the second quarter, providing a positive tailwind to total GDP growth. It noted there is still "considerable uncertainty" on the trade front for the quarter ahead. but added: "On the plus side, the Canadian government recently removed counter-tariffs on U.S. imports, which should aid in more positive discussions with the U.S. administration around the state of trade. On the other hand, Canadian export rotation into non-U.S. markets may not be having the same staying-power as exports abruptly shifted back to the U.S. in July. Looking ahead, we still expect Section 232 and IEEPA tariffs on Canadian exports to remain in place over the coming quarters with the USMCA renegotiations looming next year."

Meanwhile, Canadian officials said they would begin over the next few days to roll out financial support packages for domestic producers hit hardest by the Trump administration's sectoral tariffs, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. Among the areas to receive help are steel and aluminum, which face a 50% U.S. tariff, and Canadian-assembled automobiles, which face a 25% tariff, the report said. "We're really working on supporting these sectors, and there's more news to come," Industry Minister Melanie Joly said, adding that measures would emerge in the coming days.

Finance Minister Francois Philippe Champagne was widely reported Thursday as saying that "adjustments" are coming to the public service in Canada as the federal government looks to trim its spending in the fall budget.