12:23 PM EST, 12/19/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange, which was up 60 points in earlier trade, is now down near 115 points at midday, with industrials (-1%) and energy (-0.9%), the biggest decliners.

Utilities and info tech are the sole gainers, up 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

The resources heavy TSX hasn't been helped by mixed to lower commodity prices of late.

Oil moved higher early on Thursday after the dollar edged down from a two-year high that came after the Federal Reserve made its third-straight cut to interest rates while indicating it is likely to slow the pace of cuts in the new year.

But gold dropped for a sixth-straight session, falling to five-week low after the Federal Reserve indicated it expects to slow the pace of interest-rate cuts in the new year, sending the dollar to a two-year high.

Notes coming from Canada-based economists reflect the uncertainty around the outlook for the economy here.

Vikram Barhat at Morningstar has published a note in which he said that with the unemployment rate rising and the Bank of Canada scrambling to unwind high interest rates, one question is growing in importance: will the Canadian economy avoid a recession?

Barhat noted some analysts argue that strong population growth and a targeted monetary policy will help avert a recession. Others argue the country is already in a "stealth recession", and edging toward a technical recession in the coming months. Others point to population decline, trade tensions with the United States, and increasing unemployment headwinds as warning signals.

Long-term small business optimism has also dropped about three points on the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) December Business Barometer. "This marks not only a halt in the trend we have seen previously, but also that one month of high uncertainty eradicated the gains made in the previous months," the CFIB said.

But TD Economics noted a major change relative to its September projection is the "steep upside surprise" that it is tracking for Canadian home sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. Indeed, it said, sales probably chalked up a gain of about 12% in Q4, lifted by B.C. and Ontario. "In terms of risks to the outlook," TD added, "tariff threats loom large over the Canadian economy. Full or partial implementation will damage the economy and, therefore, housing, more than we've built into our baseline. On the upside, falling borrowing costs could upwardly pressure sales and prices by more than we expect."