12:16 PM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up just four points at midday with energy (+1.2%) and telecoms (+1%), posting the biggest gains.

Technology, down 1.8%, is the biggest decliner.

Oil prices rose early on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil as Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, continues to violate a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine brokered by the United States.

Gold continued to push to new record highs as safe-haven buying continues with stock markets falling ahead of a tariffs update. Natural gas prices rose on strong export demand and forecasts for cool spring weather.

BMO Economics in its morning note said equity market volatility will remain on high pitch this week with Wednesday's announcement of reciprocal tariffs from the White House and with Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. payrolls data on deck Friday. Reciprocal duties could be set high for countries that are deemed to apply elevated duties or restrictive non-tariff barriers. It also noted these new duties are likely to be stacked upon already announced and future levies, "magnifying their inflationary impulse."

According to BMO, it would likely take broad tariff increases of more than 25% and aggressive counter tariffs to pull the U.S. economy into recession. and markets now sense we could be headed down that "hazardous road". On the weekend, White House advisor Peter Navarro said tariffs would raise more than US$6 trillion of revenue over a decade. BMO noted this implies an increase in the average tariff rate of at least 20 ppts, which will hit consumer spending and the economy unless offset by personal tax cuts. The WSJ also reported that a broad tariff covering nearly all U.S. trading partners is back in play. This could be on top of further industry-specific tariffs (copper, lumber, for example) that might also be announced on Wednesday.

Last week, BMO noted, saw the TSX slip 0.8% with technology, industrials and health care under pressure. But it also noted the TSX continues to outperform the S&P 500 through this correction despite more severe economic exposure to a trade conflict in Canada. In looking at what's helping, BMO noted "much cheaper valuations coming into this period, and the reality that the TSX (e.g., energy, banks and big stable dividend payers) isn't always the best reflection of the underlying on-the-ground economy."

Over at Scotiabank, Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics, noted "a black mark in the annals of global economic history" arrives on Wednesday with the expected tariff announcements out of the U.S. Holt said it's likely that speculation toward what the FT called a two-step process that (ab)uses emergency powers to impose "substantial" tariffs while conducting probes into trade practices of other countries is likely. "That means tensions are here to stay for the foreseeable future," he added.

Rosenberg Research noted global stock markets are on track for their fourth consecutive losing session, with so-called 'Liberation Day" of reciprocal tariffs just 48 hours away and "chaos set to face global supply chains in COVID-like style". It too noted today's WSJ reports that most trading partners will be facing tariff rates of up to 20%. The administration has already set the table, having imposed 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, an additional 20% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico that aren't covered by the USMCA, and a 25% tariff on all imported cars starting April 3rd.

Over at Edward Jones, Angelo Kourkafas in his 'Weekly Market Wrap' noted the U.S. economy is less reliant on trade, but said tariffs will still act as a drag to economic growth and push goods inflation higher. In Canada, he added, the drag will be larger, and the economy could stagnate. "However, we don't expect tariffs to derail the bull market."

Kourkafas said: "Corporate profits are rising, the private sector continues to add jobs at a healthy pace, the BoC is cutting rates, and U.S. policy agenda may soon shift to pro-growth measures. He added: "With so many potential outcomes, a V-shaped rebound in stocks is less likely. We recommend balance between growth and value investments and see opportunities in U.S. health care and financials, which are less exposed to tariff uncertainty and have attractive valuations. Financials may also benefit from potential pro-growth policies."