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Update: WTI Rises as US Inflation Rose Less than Expected and Inventories Fell Last Week; IEA Lowers its Demand Forecast
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Update: WTI Rises as US Inflation Rose Less than Expected and Inventories Fell Last Week; IEA Lowers its Demand Forecast
May 15, 2024 11:57 AM

02:40 PM EDT, 05/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a gain on Wednesday as the United States reported a key inflation measure eased last month and a report showed a drop in US inventories, while the International Energy Agency lowered its 2024 demand forecast .

WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$0.61 to settle at US$78.63 per barrel, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen US$0.37 to US$82.75.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the April consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from March, down from a rise of 0.4% a month earlier and under the consensus estimate for a 0.4% rise, according to Marketwatch. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.6% annualized, matching expectations and down from a 3.8% pace in March.

Retail sales in the United States were unchanged in April for March, well under the consensus estimate for a 0.4% rise, adding evidence of a slowing economy and raising hopes interest rates could be lowered this year, despite a day-prior report that showed producer prices rose more than expected last month.

"Stakes are high for the release of US April inflation print today after three consecutive months of upside surprises and a consistent dovish narrative out of the Federal Reserve ... Consensus expects significant softening in April retail sales print, and this will form an additional key input on where the US economy is heading," Saxo Bank noted.

In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration said US oil inventories fell by 2.5-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters called for a 0.5-million barrel drop.

The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for 2024 oil demand in its influential monthly Oil Market Report. The agency said it now sees demand this year up by 1.1-million barrels per day this year from 2023, half of the bullish forecast released Tuesday by OPEC and down by 0.14-million bpd from its April estimate.

The agency expects supply to rise by 0.58-million bpd this year to a record 102.7-million bpd with non-OPEC supply climbing by 1.4-million bpd while its forecast sees OPEC production falling by 0.58 million bpd, assuming the cartel keeps 2.2-million bpd of voluntary cuts in place for all of 2024.

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