01:48 PM EDT, 04/08/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes were grinding higher in choppy trading at midday Monday as government bond yields extended gains and investors weighed the neck-to-neck probabilities of an interest-rate cut versus a pause in June.

The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1% to 5,207.4, after trading moderately lower earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite climbed less than 0.1% to 16,255.7, clawing back marginally intraday declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up less than 0.1% at 38,910.2, reversing earlier declines.

Consumer discretionary and real estate led the gainers, while health care and technology were the steepest decliners intraday.

The US 10-year yield jumped five basis points to 4.43%, the highest this year. A five basis point gain in the two-year Treasury pushed the yield to 4.78%, also the strongest in 2024.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will begin easing policy in June stood at 51%, in line with the close on Friday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The likelihood of the rates being left unchanged was 48%, slightly higher from 47% on the previous day, reflecting the divide between doves and hawks made worse by the nonfarm payrolls last week on Friday. While headline nonfarm payrolls beat consensus by a wide margin in March, the average hourly earnings growth decelerated year-over-year and was in line month over month.

Later this week, the consumer and producer price inflation data will shed light on whether labor market expansion is inflationary. An easing will increase focus on slowing wage growth in nonfarm payrolls as the headline data have been prone to significant revisions this year. Investors will also look for services excluding shelter costs as a cooling here would reinforce the view that the recent break in the disinflationary trend was just a bump.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped 0.9% to $86.13 a barrel, falling off the highest level in more than five months as geopolitical tensions eased after Israel removed troops from southern Gaza and ceasefire talks with Hamas continued.

Higher oil prices have led to growing concern about inflation, with investors continuing to price out the chance of rate cuts from the Fed, a note from Deutsche Bank said. As of Monday morning, about 62 basis points of rate cuts were priced in by the December FOMC meeting versus 158 basis points the market had anticipated at the start of the year.

Gold futures at Comex for June delivery rose 0.1% to $2,348.72 per ounce after touching a new record high of $2,372.50 earlier in the session. Silver jumped 1.1% to $27.81 per ounce.

In company news, Tesla (TSLA) shares perked up 5.2% intraday, the most on the Nasdaq, after Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a post on X that the electric vehicle manufacturer will unveil its "Robotaxi" August 8.