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Brazil economists raise 2026 inflation forecast amid Middle East war
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Brazil economists raise 2026 inflation forecast amid Middle East war
Mar 30, 2026 7:19 AM

SAO PAULO, March 30 (Reuters) - Brazilian economists

polled weekly by the central bank increased their inflation

forecast for this year amid recent developments in the

U.S.-Israel war on Iran, the so-called Focus poll showed on

Monday.

* Consumer prices, as measured by the IPCA index, are

now seen rising 4.31% this year, compared with a prior 4.17%

estimate.

* It was the third consecutive week that economists

raised their 2026 inflation forecast.

* The IPCA projection for 2027 rose to 3.84%, up from a

3.80% estimate the prior week.

* Since the conflict in the Middle East began, a surge

in oil prices has increased global inflation concerns, clouding

economic outlooks for the year.

* The new scenario also led the economists to forecast

that Brazil's central bank will cut its benchmark Selic rate by

25 basis points to 14.50% at their next meeting in April.

* They had previously forecast a larger cut of 50 basis

points in the upcoming decision, after the monetary authority

kicked off an easing cycle earlier this month.

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