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MORNING BID ASIA-Seeking global steer, watching Fed pendulum swings
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MORNING BID ASIA-Seeking global steer, watching Fed pendulum swings
Nov 19, 2024 9:23 PM

Nov 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia will likely take their cue from global

dynamics and drivers given the dearth of local market-moving

events on Tuesday, and if that's the case, the signs are

reasonably encouraging.

The rocky ride last week that saw a sharp reversal in stocks

and risk appetite gave way to a much smoother start to this week

on Monday. Broad measures of implied volatility, bond yields and

the dollar all fell to varying degrees, paving the way for a

rebound in riskier assets.

There doesn't appear to be any fresh catalyst or impetus for

the generally upbeat start to the week, so equally, one could

argue that there's little guarantee Monday's global momentum

will continue into Asia on Tuesday.

But last week's selling was heavy, and many shorter-term

speculative positions will have been cleaned out. The MSCI World

and Nasdaq both posted their biggest losses in 10 weeks, and the

MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its worst week since June 2022.

World stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Monday

while Asian stocks climbed for a second straight day, a

surprisingly rare feat over the past six weeks.

Investors continue to weigh up the outlook for U.S. interest

rates in light of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks last

Thursday that the central bank is in no rush to raise them, and

last week's relatively strong U.S. economic data.

There's a case to make that the 'hawkish' swing in the rates

market's implied Fed pricing since Powell's comments - and

indeed, over the last several weeks - has limited room to run.

It wasn't that long ago talk of a possible 75 basis point

rate cut in December was circulating and traders were betting on

the fed funds rate ending next year around 2.75%. Now, even a 25

bps rate cut next month is by no means assured, and the implied

end-2025 fed funds rate is not much below 4.00%.

Perhaps the pendulum has swung a little too far.

Investors may also be reluctant to take firm directional

bets ahead of Nvidia's results on Wednesday. The semiconductor

giant, at the vanguard of the global AI frenzy, is the world's

most valuable company, and an earnings 'beat' or 'miss' will

help set the global market tone for the rest of the week and

probably year.

The local calendar in Asia on Tuesday is light. The main

highlight will be the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes of its

last policy meeting, where it kept the cash rate steady at 4.35%

and signaled the need to remain "vigilant" to upside inflation

risks.

The RBA is only expected to start its easing cycle in May

next year, and even then cut rates just half a percentage point

by next December.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- RBA meeting minutes

- G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro

- Euro zone flash inflation estimate (October)

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