BRASILIA, June 14 (Reuters) - Economic activity in
Brazil started the second quarter in stagnation, a central bank
index showed on Friday, frustrating market expectations.
The IBC-Br economic activity index, a key predictor of gross
domestic product (GDP), rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.01% in
April over the previous month, falling short of the 0.45% growth
forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the index increased by
4.01% over April 2023, while the expansion in the 12-month
period was 1.81%.
The April data came in below expectations despite still not
incorporating the negative effects of devastating floods in Rio
Grande do Sul state in May, which affected the infrastructure of
hundreds of cities and displaced over half a million people.
Rodolfo Margato, an economist at broker XP, said the April
data reflects mixed signals from key indicators, with a
contraction in the volume of sales in extended retail, mixed
industrial production figures and growth in the services sector.
"The early signs from the IBC-Br for the second quarter
point to a more moderate performance than that seen in early
2024," he said, projecting a 0.5% growth over the first quarter.
A robust labor market helped to boost the largest economy in
Latin America in the first quarter, sustaining household
consumption.
The increase in investments also contributed to the GDP
expanding by 0.8% from January to March compared to the previous
quarter, but economists had been anticipating a slowdown ahead,
partly due to the impact of the tragedy in the southern region
of the country.