LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The UK government bond market
has sent investors an unwelcome reminder of the kind of
volatility that can materialise when enough concern builds over
government finances, as yields soared to their highest since
2008 and the pound has dropped.
Benchmark 10-year gilt yields hit their highest
since August 2008 on Thursday, while sterling fell by
as much as 1.6% at one point, before selling abated, allowing
prices to stabilise a little.
This week's global selloff in government bonds, driven by
expectations for inflation to pick up, for interest rates to
fall more slowly and for government finances to feel more strain
has sent ripples through currencies and stocks, with the UK hit
especially hard.
Here's what bond fund managers and strategists are saying:
RANJIV MANN, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ALLIANZ GLOBAL
INVESTORS:
"We still favour owning gilts both on an outright and
relative value basis versus (German) Bunds and Canadian rates."
"Rising U.S. rates have been the primary driver of the
broader sell-off in global rates recently, given a combination
of a more hawkish Fed and expectations of a pro-growth fiscal
policy stance from the incoming Trump administration. Gilts have
followed the broader sell off in global rates."
"At the current level of gilt yields, the fiscal space
available to the government is now being eroded, which could put
pressure on the government to signal a tighter fiscal stance
ahead. A shift in the government's fiscal stance would begin to
present further downside growth risks for the UK economy this
year."
MATTHEW AMIS, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, ABRDN:
"We've not really changed our position in the last 24 hours.
At the end of last year, we were long gilts versus U.S.
Treasuries. That worked well up until 24 hours ago. We're
lightly positioned there, and we're kind of inclined to hold it
here."
"We'll wait to see how the market trades in the next 24
hours. We've seen (former UK Prime Minister) Liz Truss, we've
seen various episodes like this in the gilt market before. So if
it continues to move, then we won't be standing in the way of
it."
RUSS MOULD, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, AJ BELL:
"The UK is still feeling its way after the budget. The
biggest issue of all is that we need to have an honest discourse
about the widespread dissatisfaction with our public services."
"If we want to have a Scandinavian system, we'll need pay
the tax rates needed to fund it. The alternative is that our
public services will come to more resemble those in the U.S."
"The public need to be presented with that choice and it's a
decision that needs to be taken as a nation but politically,
it's not a decision anyone wants to be seen as forcing."
JAMES ATHEY, FIXED INCOME MANAGER, MARLBOROUGH:
"Government indebtedness is an increasing concern for
investors worldwide."
"The UK is not at the extreme end, its budget balance is not
worse than the U.S. or France, although sentiment does seem to
be particularly negative."
"We're still long UK and uncomfortably so. There are
concerns around fiscal policy and the supply issue, but that was
already in the price."
"Big assets managers were long gilts at the end of last
year....some of those positions may be getting squeezed out."
IAIN BARNES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NETWEALTH:
"Anyone who has been positioning portfolios really to build
into the outlook for UK growth will be worried that the
Chancellor is going to find other ways to increase the tax take
again."
"Anything with clear UK-factor exposure as well... anything
that's trading off the confidence in the UK market combined with
interest-rate exposures, has really struggled, so we're avoiding
those areas completely."
"You saw smaller companies in the UK get hit particularly
hard, we're focusing more of our exposure up at the long end."
PEDER BECK-FRIIS, ECONOMIST, PIMCO:
"If the current trends of rising yields and slowing growth
persist, the chances of spending cuts or tax increases will
increase for the government to adhere to its new fiscal rules."
"Although UK-specific factors, such as the budget, have
contributed to the rise, most of the increase has been driven by
rises in U.S. Treasury yields during the same period."
LINDSAY JAMES, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, QUILTER INVESTORS:
"Whilst this will undoubtedly cut into Rachel Reeves' already
limited budgetary headroom, the likelihood of further tax rises
in the coming months seems slim."
"Spending cuts feel like the more likely outcome, with the
Treasury declaring yesterday that meeting the fiscal rules
remains 'non-negotiable.' With public services already
struggling and the investment budget seen as the source of
future growth, the decision of where cuts could fall will be
crucial. However, wherever the cuts may fall, her goal of
raising economic growth has just become that bit harder."
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)