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CEE MARKETS-Crown touches 6-week low, FX under pressure from dollar
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CEE MARKETS-Crown touches 6-week low, FX under pressure from dollar
Jun 21, 2024 2:46 AM

By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, June 21 (Reuters) - The Czech crown touched a

fresh six-week low on Friday as markets feared the Czech central

bank might maintain its rate-cutting pace next week, while a

strengthening dollar and a risk-averse mood pressured currencies

in central Europe.

The forint traded 0.24% weaker versus the euro at

397.65, hovering around three-month lows.

"The forint is just sitting on the train, it is not specific

to Hungary, the strong dollar is affecting the entire region,"

an FX trader in Budapest said.

"This is why the (Hungarian) central bank should have sent a

stronger message and ruled out any more rate cuts this year,"

the trader added.

Hungary's central bank made the smallest rate cut to date in

its 14-month easing cycle on Tuesday, but did not rule out the

scope for more rate cuts in the second half of this year.

A second trader said that market participants were also

"super nervous" about the snap election in France scheduled for

June 30, another geopolitical uncertainty, which leads to

investors turning away from riskier currencies.

"This is why currencies in central Europe cannot calm down,"

she said.

The Czech crown traded 0.08% weaker at 24.93 per

euro after touching a six-week low of 24.97.

Markets have been betting the Czech central bank will opt

for a smaller 25-basis-point rate cut at a meeting next week,

following three straight 50-bp moves.

But central banker comments have showed that a sharper cut

was still an option next week.

Some analysts said a weaker crown might tip policymakers

toward a smaller cut next week.

We "expect a move closer to 25.00, which in effect could be

the end for the dovish CNB and offer one more reason to cut

rates by 25bp rather than 50bp," ING wrote in a note.

The Polish zloty slid 0.08% to 4.333 per euro.

"After Thursday's session, we do not see any new factors on

the horizon that would support further strengthening of the PLN

in the short term," said PKO Bank, Poland's biggest lender.

"We assume that EUR/PLN will end the week in the zone of

4.32-4.35, with an asymmetric risk of the exchange rate

approaching the upper limit of this range."

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Warsaw's blue chip

index easing 0.3%, while Budapest added 0.14%.

CEE SNAPSH AT

MARKETS OT 1055

CET

CURREN

CIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in

2024

Czech 0 0

Hungary 00 00

Polish %

Romania Serbian 00 00 % %

Note: calculated from 1800

daily CET

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2024

Prague 1535.6 1537.9 -0.15% +8.60

8 600 %

Budapes 70440. 70327. +0.16 +16.2

t 18 34 % 0%

Warsaw 2493.9 2497.8 -0.16% +6.44

4 2 %

Buchare 18109. 18042. +0.37 +17.8

st 01 59 % 1%

Spread Daily

vs change

Bund in

Czech spread

Republi

c

ps

ps

ps

Poland

0 ps

0 ps

0 ps

FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interb

ank

Czech 4.58 4.21 4.02 5.04

Rep Hungary 7.18 6.94 6.70 6.87

Poland 5.81 5.65 5.38 5.85

Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

*****************************************

*********************

(Additional reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Jason

Hovet in Prague; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)

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