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CEE MARKETS-Currencies steady after selloff, forint fragile
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CEE MARKETS-Currencies steady after selloff, forint fragile
Nov 1, 2024 1:20 AM

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Central European currencies

mostly traded slightly firmer on Thursday after a selloff in the

previous session driven by jitters about the upcoming U.S.

presidential election.

The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an

outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a

view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.

The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald

Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and

tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets

anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner

currencies.

"There is a little bit of recovery in CEE3 today,

euro/dollar is bouncing higher from the lows so there is some

relief," said a Warsaw-based FX trader.

By 0838 GMT, the zloty was up 0.15% against the

euro at 4.341, while the Hungarian forint, which has

been the region's poorest performer with a 4.8% fall this year,

was steady, hovering near its levels around 403 hit on

Wednesday.

"Emerging market currencies weakened substantially yesterday

while the dollar firmed," brokerage Equilor said in a note,

adding that even though local markets in Hungary were closed,

the forint also fell past 403 to the euro in illiquid trading,

hitting its lowest level since January 2023.

The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to

pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.

Even after cuts totalling 11.5 percentage points since May

2023, Hungary's benchmark interest rate at 6.5% is the highest

in the European Union, with the National Bank of Hungary (NBH)

heading for what could be an extended pause in rate cuts.

"Given the importance the NBH places on exchange rate

developments, we continue to believe the level of the Forint

continues to act as the 'binding constraint' on the pace of rate

reduction," Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.

On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to

release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for

that has kept investors cautious.

The Czech crown was 0.17% firmer at 25.23.

"The Czech crown is in slightly defensive mode, but the

uncertainty before the US election is clearly affecting it

significantly less than the forint or zloty. The currency pair

thus remains in the 25.20-25.30 range EUR/CZK," CSOB analysts

said in a note.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1025 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

EURCZK= Czech %

EURHUF= Hungar %

forint

EURPLN= Polish %

EURRON= Romani %

EURRSD= Serbia %

dinar

Note: calculat 1800

daily ed from CET

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

.PX Prague 1639.87 1639.810 +0.00 +15.97%

0 %

.BUX Budape 74052.55 73846.09 +0.28 +22.16%

st %

.WIG20 Warsaw 2270.39 2256.21 +0.63 -3.10%

%

.BETI Buchar 17464.98 17442.24 +0.13 +13.62%

est %

Spread Daily

vs change in

Bund

Czech spread

Republ

ic

CZ2YT=R ps

CZ5YT=R ps

CZ10YT= ps

r

Poland

PL2YT=R ps

PL5YT=R ps

PL10YT= ps

r

FORWARD

RATE

AGREEMEN

TS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interbank

Czech 3.82 3.57 3.43 4.11

Rep Hungar 6.85 6.20 6.46 6.40

y

Poland 5.68 5.26 4.83 5.85

Note: are for

FRA ask

quotes prices

**************************

**************************

**********

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