PRAGUE, July 10 (Reuters) - The crown fell to a
three-month low on Wednesday after a surprise drop in the Czech
headline inflation rate sparked bets the central bank could cut
interest rates quicker than expected.
The crown's 0.5% drop made it the biggest faller
in central Europe, where other currencies were able to gain.
Czech inflation eased to 2.0% year-on-year in June, well
below a Reuters poll forecast of 2.5% and central bank
expectations.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) has delivered four straight 50
basis-point rate cuts but has signalled a likely slowdown to
that tempo at upcoming meetings.
The crown had slipped to 25.397 to the euro by 0819 GMT,
hitting a session low of 25.425, its lowest since April. Market
rates also fell by between 12 and 15 basis points, although
investors are still pricing in a 25 bp cut coming at the bank's
August meeting.
"Downward pressure on CNB rates is likely to intensify after
today's data," Martin Gurtler, analyst at Komercni Banka, said.
With consensus seeing the main rate at 4%, from the current
4.75%, at the end of the year, he said the chances of it falling
below that are growing.
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty continued to march
higher after National Bank of Poland governor Adam Glapinski
said last week that interest rate cuts would not happen before
2026.
The zloty added 0.25% on Wednesday, to 4.2515 to the euro,
approaching its four-year high just past 4.25.
Hungary's forint recovered ground, coming after
losses following inflation data there below expectations and
announcements of new government tax measures. The forint was
0.45% up at 393.05 per euro.
MHB Bank said markets may be starting to view the measures -
including seeking so-called defence fund contributions from
banks and other companies - as being "aimed at keeping the
budget deficit under control, so investors should be less
concerned that the risks surrounding the deficit target are not
being addressed by the cabinet."
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1019
CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
Czech 0
Hungary 00
Polish Romania Serbian 00
Note: calcula 1800 CET
daily ted
change from
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
Prague 1574.82 1570.2 +0.29% +11.37
700 %
Budapes 71532.96 71169. +0.51% +18.00
t 33 %
Warsaw 5
Buchare 18374.25 18334. +0.22% +19.54
st 03 %
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republi
c
0
0
0
Poland
0
0
0
FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for
FRA ask
quotes prices
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Boldizsar Gyori in
Budapest; Editing by David Holmes
)