Dec 11 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields were
mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited Thursday's European
Central Bank policy meeting, which should deliver a 25 basis
points rate cut and some dovish guidance.
U.S. data showing November inflation aligned with analyst
expectations failed to provide a clear direction.
We expect "the ECB to more explicitly recognise that, so
long as incoming data confirms the rapid convergence of
inflation to target, it will ease policy all the way to a
neutral setting," said Citi, after reiterating its expectations
for a 25 bps rate cut.
It added as the ECB wants to avoid being too dovish, it is
unlikely to accelerate its monetary easing.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose one bp to 2.13%.
Some analysts flagged that the ECB could remove the
reference to the need to keep policy rates "sufficiently
restrictive" in its statement, while President Christine Lagarde
might say in the press conference that inflation is broadly on
track to fall to the target.
Markets fully priced in an ECB 25 bps rate cut
on Thursday, no chance of a 50 bps move,
and a depo rate at 1.82% in July 2025.
The ECB deposit facility rate is currently at 3.25%.
German borrowing costs spiked to a four-month high on
October 31 as investors worried about long-term inflation
pressures in the euro area and the upcoming U.S. election.
They have since fallen back as euro zone economic data has
painted a weaker picture than expected.
Germany's two-year government bond yield, more
sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, was down
0.5 bps at 1.96%.
Italian bonds outperformed their peers, with the 10-year
yields hitting a fresh 28-month low at 3.162% and the spread
between Italian and German borrowing costs -- a market gauge of
the risk premium investors demand to hold Italian debt -
narrowing to 106 bps. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
The yield gap hit 104.5 bps last week, its lowest since
October 2021, after the FT reported that EU countries are
discussing a 500 billion euro joint fund for common defence
projects and arms procurement, tapping bond markets.
Projects funded by joint European Union issuances can
stimulate economic growth without increasing the debt burden of
highly leveraged economies.
This is why expectations for such joint-funded plans often
lead to a narrowing of the gaps between the bond yields of the
most indebted countries and those of Germany, seen as the
benchmark for stability in the euro zone.
The yield spread between French government bonds and
safe-haven Bunds showed little reaction after
President Emmanuel Macron set himself 48 hours to name a new
government on Tuesday. It was last down 0.5 bps at 76.20 bps.