Oct 2 (Reuters) - Euro area government bond yields rose
on Wednesday after long-dated yields posted their biggest daily
fall since mid-June the day before on concerns about economic
growth.
Fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East added
downside pressure as investors rushed into the safety of
government bonds, but its impact remained contained for now.
Data showed on Tuesday manufacturing activity across the
euro zone declined at its fastest pace this year in September.
Investors await U.S. jobs data due later in the session as
the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus to employment
indicators after inflationary pressures eased.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose 4.5 basis point (bps) to 2.09%. It hit
2.011% on Tuesday, its lowest level since January, before ending
the session with a 9 bps drop.
"Markets are taking a breather after yesterday's bond rally.
However, geopolitics and the central bank's policy paths
remained in focus," said Massimiliano Maxia, fixed income
specialist at Allianz Global Investors.
Euro zone growth could be weaker in the near term than the
ECB expects but the recovery should pick up pace later on, ECB
Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday.
Markets priced in a 90% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the
European Central Bank in October, from 80%
late on Friday.
The ECB has a "clear-cut" case for cutting interest rates at
its next meeting, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks told Reuters.
Analysts flagged that Kazaks also warned markets against
running ahead of themselves" as it is "too early to say we're
done with inflation" and "rates must stay somewhat restrictive."
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to ECB rate expectations and already priced in a quick
easing path, was up 1.5 bps at 2.04%. It hit 1.987% on Tuesday,
its lowest level since December 2022, before ending down 4 bps.
The gap between French and German 10-year yields
- a gauge of risk premium that investors demand to
hold France's government bonds - was last at 79 bps, from around
70 bps in mid-September. It reached its widest since 2012 beyond
85 bps during France's parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced steep public
spending cuts and targeted tax hikes for France's biggest
companies and wealthiest individuals on Tuesday to narrow a
gaping budget deficit.
"The OAT-led tightening in euro area government bond spreads
yesterday was likely partly driven by shorts taking profit ahead
of Prime Minister Barnier's presentation of his government's
policy agenda, but it mostly reversed after the event," said
Andrea Appeddu, rate strategist at Citi.
"Yesterday's policy announcements add to the downside
pressure on French credit ratings," he added, flagging the
increase in 2025 deficit target to 5% from 4.1% earlier and
"doubts around the government's longevity."
Italy's 10-year yield rose 5 bps to 3.43% while
the gap between Italian and German yields widened
to 133.5 bps.