March 5 (Reuters) - German long-dated bonds saw their
worst selloff in years and the euro jumped to its highest level
in almost four months on Wednesday after the parties in talks to
form Germany's new government agreed to try to loosen the
country's fiscal rules.
European stock indexes recorded robust gains after sharp
declines in the previous session.
The German political parties concerned want to make higher
defence and federal state spending possible and to create a 500
billion euro ($535 billion) special fund to boost the country's
infrastructure.
Friedrich Merz's conservatives and the Social Democrats
(SPD) will put their proposals to parliament next week.
"'Don't underestimate Germany's capacity to change' was our
hypothesis into the year and just as most people gave up on
Europe," said Maximillian Uleer, strategist at Deutsche Bank.
"Today, Germany announced a 'Whatever it takes' plan."
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area's benchmark, climbed
20 basis points (bps) to 2.69%, in its biggest daily rise since
mid-March 2020, at the height of the pandemic crisis.
However, most analysts question how quickly Germany could
deploy such a large amount of money.
"It's a significant move (in financial markets) but it has
to be a significant move given the size of these packages," said
Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank.
"When people realise this is not coming tomorrow but it's
coming over 10 years, how big a reaction should we have?"
Germany's 30-year yield was up 18 bps after
rising almost 25 bps to 3.07% in its biggest daily jump since
October 1998.
"Higher spending is likely to weigh on the longer end of the
curve. We thus close our long duration call on Bunds," Deutsche
Bank's Uleer added.
Money markets reduced their bets on European Central Bank
rate cuts, pricing in a depo rate of 2.02% in December
from 1.92% late Tuesday.
Germany's 2-year yield, more sensitive to ECB
policy rates, rose 15 bps to 2.16%.
"This proposal (to loosen the debt brake) could ultimately
mean even more new debt than the earlier media reports about a
combined 900 billion euros package for defence and investment,"
said Christoph Rieger, rate strategist at Commerzbank, arguing
that "the military component is in principle unlimited."
The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on
Tuesday the EU will activate the escape clause of the stability
and growth pact, removing limits on defence spending.
"Moreover, the measures could also give the future
governments more fiscal space beyond military and investment in
the upcoming budgets," Commerzbank's Rieger added.
The spread between the risk-free 10-year overnight index
swap (OIS) and Bund yields dropped to -23 bps, its
lowest level since August 2010.
The yield gap between Italian and German debt
was roughly unchanged at 102 bps after dropping below 100 bps
for the first time since 2021 early in the session.
Joint European Union borrowing for new investments will be
crucial to support government bonds for highly indebted
countries, like Italy and France.
The single currency jumped as investors eyed the
prospective increases in fiscal spending, which could boost the
economy.
The euro was up 0.6% at $1.0687, after hitting
$1.0722, its highest since November 11, and jumping by almost 3%
since Monday. Its rise against the yen was more moderate,
climbing 0.13% at 159.40.
"The euro/dollar broke decisively higher on prospects of a
fiscal bazooka out of Europe. The speed with which the Europeans
are moving is impressive, especially in Germany," said Chris
Turner, forex strategist at ING.
"Expect much focus now on whether the agreed fiscal changes
in Germany move swiftly and easily through parliament over
coming weeks," he added.