(Updates to European afternoon)
By Alun John
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - German 10-year Bund yields hit a
three-month low on Wednesday, as oil prices fell further,
reinforcing investor views that euro zone inflation will remain
broadly in check, limiting the amount of policy tightening
needed by the European Central Bank.
The euro zone benchmark fell 4 basis points to
2.87%, its lowest since March 11, and is down 11 bps this week.
This week's rally has been helped by ECB President Christine
Lagarde telling the European Parliament on Monday there was no
evidence of the kind of inflation pick-up that would warrant
more forceful policy action, and after soft inflation readings
from business activity data on Tuesday.
Those reinforced the shift in market sentiment after last
week's initial agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The deal
allowed shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, sending
the price of Brent crude oil down, and reducing the likelihood
energy will cause a rise in prices more broadly.
Oil fell again on Wednesday, with Brent down 4.4% to $73.7 a
barrel, levels last seen at the start of the Iran war.
Markets are pricing in another increase of 25 bps by the
ECB, which tightened policy earlier this month, by the end of
the year, but they see little chance of a third move in 2026, a
change from a few weeks ago.
RBC Capital Markets has removed a third rate hike this year
from its forecasts, saying: "there has been a material change in
the inflation environment".
"The key question now is to what extent there can be a fast
mean-reversion in euro area inflation dynamics or whether a
persistent element remains," RBC analysts said in a note.
They still expect the ECB to hike rates in September, but
said they expected policymakers to use speeches between now and
then to guide markets either towards or against that outcome.
ECB-sensitive short-dated yields moved less, with Germany's
2-year yield down 2 bps at 2.55%, but the 30-year yield was down
5 bps at 3.42%, its lowest since April 1.
Also in the mix in Europe was data showing German business
morale rose in June, with companies more positive about their
situation than they have been for nearly two years.
Other euro zone bonds were moving broadly in line with
Germany. Italy's 10-year yield dropped 5 bps to 3.60%, its
lowest since March 13.