(Updates with details, prices)
* US-Iran talks ongoing, US expects Iran to open Strait
of Hormuz, sources say
* Brent crude dips below $100, easing inflation fears and
ECB rate hike expectations
* ECB policymaker Boris Vujcic says energy prices align
with baseline, no change to outlook
By Stefano Rebaudo
April 14 (Reuters) - Euro zone benchmark government bond
yields edged lower on Tuesday, but remained close to 15-year
highs, as hopes grew for a resolution of the Middle East
conflict.
Sources familiar with the negotiations said talks between
the U.S. and Iran remained ongoing, while U.S. Vice President JD
Vance said on Monday the U.S. expects Iran to make progress on
opening the Strait of Hormuz.
The jump in oil prices has heightened concerns about a
pickup in inflation and supported expectations for European
Central Bank rate hikes. Brent crude futures, which have risen
40% since the start of the war, dipped below $100 a barrel on
Tuesday.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield fell 3.5
basis points (bps) to 3.05%. It reached 3.13% in late March, its
highest level since 2011. Two-year yields, which are
more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, were down 5 bps
at 2.59%. They reached 2.771% in late March, their highest since
July 2024.
Analysts said that while the truce was fragile, neither
party was likely to let full-blown war resume.
Attention is also turning to Beijing's reaction, as any
Iranian oil export blockade would be particularly problematic
for China, which imports much of its oil from Iran, and could
pile pressure on all sides for a quicker resolution.
Money markets priced in a ECB deposit facility rate at 2.62%
by year-end, implying two hikes and an
about 50% chance of a third move, from around 2.60% late Friday.
They also indicated a 30% chance of a rate increase in
April, down from 50% on Monday. The deposit facility rate is
currently at 2%.
Markets expect the ECB to lean towards tightening monetary
policy to ward off an energy shock, but policymaker Boris Vujcic
said on Monday current energy prices remain broadly in line with
the central bank's baseline scenario and should not affect the
inflation or growth outlook.
"Bond markets appear to be growing 'comfortably numb'," said
Christoph Rieger, head of rates and credit research at
Commerzbank, highlighting that European government bond and
credit spreads are all at levels from the first half of March,
when oil prices were a lot lower.
Italian 10-year bond yields fell 5 bps to 3.83%.
They reached 4.142% in late March, the highest since July 2024.
They are still up 55 bps since the start of the war, given
Italy's exposure to imported energy-price inflation.
The yield premium of Italian government bonds over German
Bunds was at 76 bps. It was at 63 bps before the attack against
Iran and hit 103.62 bps during the conflict, the highest since
June 20.