(Updates pricing in European afternoon)
* German 10-year Bund yield rises 1 bp to 3.12%
* Jefferies says oil likely settles at $75 to $80 a barrel
* France sells nearly 8 billion euros of 10-year bonds at
higher average yields
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
edged up on Thursday as markets watched out for signals of a
possible re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as energy prices
remain well above pre-war levels and any deal on maritime
traffic may prove fleeting, analysts said.
Oil prices were last just above $81 a barrel as
investors were cautious about the outcome of Iran-Oman talks. A
proposed deal between the two to help end the U.S.-Iran conflict
would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through
the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices limit the risk of a
damaging spike in inflation, which hurts bonds.
German 10-year yields traded at 3.12% on
Thursday, up 1.7 basis points, while 2-year yields
rose 1.6 bps to 2.73%.
Crude futures are around 12% above where they were before
the war broke out in late February, while European physical
crude prices are still anywhere between 18% and 25% above those
levels, which could curtail further rallies in bond prices,
analysts said.
"A deal could see 10-year U.S. Treasuries moving back
towards 4.5% and 10-year Bunds towards 3%, but we do not see a
rally much beyond that. Our base case remains that oil would
likely settle in the $75-$80 range, which is still a good
25%-30% higher than pre-war levels and would need to be factored
into growth and inflation expectations," Jefferies strategist
Mohit Kumar said.
On the supply front, France sold nearly €8 billion ($9.2
billion) in 10-year bonds on Thursday and, although demand held
up well, the cost of borrowing spiked.
Unease over European governments' long-term financing,
combined with volatile domestic politics, has undermined French
bonds recently. OATs have been the poorest
performers among the G7 debt markets in the last month.
At 2.909% on Thursday, 2-year OATs are yielding roughly 20
bps more than a month ago, compared with top-performing 2-year
U.S. Treasuries, with a rise of around 9 bps, and a
whisker ahead of the rise in German Schatz yields in that time.
Benchmark 10-year yields are nearly 18 bps higher than a
month ago, compared with roughly 11 bps for UK gilts, the
best-performing bonds in the last month.
France sold May 2036 paper at an average yield of 3.737% on
Thursday, up from 3.68% at the July auction, as well as November
2036 bonds that achieved an average yield of 3.9%, up from 3.73%
last month.
French 10-year OATs were trading 1.9 bps higher
on the day at 3.91%.
Spain also sold nearly €2 billion in 10-year debt on
Thursday, for an average yield of 3.542%, up from an average of
3.395% at the last such sale in July, as well as €1.85 billion
in 5-year debt for an average 3.005%, up from 2.835% in July.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Bono were up 1.4 bps
on the day at 3.56%.
($1 = 0.8666 euros)