(Updates throughout)
By Sophie Kiderlin
LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell on
Friday, having hit multi-year highs a day earlier, as oil prices
eased back below the $100 mark and markets weighed the inflation
and interest rate outlook.
The yield on Germany's 10-year bond, the benchmark for the euro
zone, was last down 2.7 basis points (bps) to 3.1845%. It hit a
15-year high in the previous session.
Euro zone bonds have been under pressure - especially given the
European economy's vulnerability to imported energy - throughout
the week, with oil prices rising above $100 per barrel for the
first time since May. On Friday, Brent crude futures were last
almost 3.2% lower at $97.53 per barrel, though they were still
set for a near 11% weekly rise.
"Oil dynamics are set to remain in the driving seat," for bond
markets, Commerzbank strategists said in a note.
Energy prices have been pushed higher by fresh hostilities in
the Middle East, as well as concerns about a second shipping
chokepoint emerging. Spiking energy costs prompted fresh
inflation worries and led traders to bet on additional policy
tightening from the world's central banks.
Elsewhere, the U.S. on Friday imposed new tariffs on goods from
60 trading partners, which further added to inflation jitters.
ECB RATE OUTLOOK
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on
Thursday, as expected, but kept the option for a September
increase on the table. Markets were last pricing in a strong
chance of a September rate hike from the ECB, with the
possibility of another increase later in the year.
Felix Schmidt, senior economist at Berenberg, said the ECB would
likely react in September if energy prices remain around current
levels or spike further. But, he noted that the situation in the
Middle East could change quickly.
"If you see a de-escalation, another ceasefire - we saw it after
the first ceasefire, oil prices can come back very quickly and
inflation can come down very quickly, so there's also still the
chance that there will be no hike in September," Schmidt said.
Several ECB policymakers on Friday noted that inflation risks
are high and that the central bank may need to raise rates once
more, but they stopped short of calling for an outright hike at
the bank's September meeting.
The yield on Germany's two-year bond, which is more sensitive to
interest rate expectations, was last around 4.8 bps lower at
2.8421%, having touched its highest point since July 2024 in the
previous session.
Meanwhile, a survey on Friday showed that euro zone business
activity returned to growth in July for the first time in four
months, driven by a rebound in new orders, while the rate of
overall input cost inflation eased to its lowest since
February.
"Were it not for the resurgence of the conflict in the Middle
East, the picture would have looked encouraging," ING economist
Bert Colijn said.
"But as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said
yesterday at the press conference, we are back to where we were
in early June, with downside economic risks and upside
inflationary risks resurfacing."