LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year bond
yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, rose for a fifth day
straight on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly rise
since July 2023 as economic data cast doubt on investors' hopes
that interest rates will soon be falling.
The German 10-year yield was up by 1 basis point
(bp) at 2.432%, heading for a 17 bps rise for the week. Yields
rise when prices fall and vice versa.
The sell-off this week was triggered by two
stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation readings that suggested
the Federal Reserve might not be able to cut interest rates in
June as investors had been expecting.
Given that investors broadly expect the European Central
Bank and the Fed to cut rates at around the same time, and the
size and importance of the U.S. bond market and economy,
expectations about American borrowing costs cause yields
elsewhere to swing.
German 2-year bond yields, which are more
sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose 2 bps to 2.898%
and were on track to rise 16 bps this week, which would be their
biggest weekly increase since early February.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased more
than expected in February. That was followed up by a report on
Thursday that showed producer prices also climbed more steeply
than economists had anticipated, while weekly jobless claims
remained subdued.
"The driver this week has been the very strong numbers in
the U.S.," said Emmanouil Karimalis, macro rates strategist at
UBS, adding people had started to worry about the persistence of
inflation again.
"The underlying driver of rates and sentiment right now is
how strong the data is in the U.S. and there's a spillover
effect to Europe," Karimalis said.
Italy's 10-year yield was 2 bps higher at
3.694%. At 11 bps, it has risen less than Germany's 10-year
yield this week, which on Thursday helped push the closely
watched "spread" between the two borrowing costs to a 26-month
low of 115 bps. It rose to 124 bps on Friday.
Next week will be another busy one for investors, when the
Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England all set
interest rates.
Market pricing on Friday showed investors see a roughly 80%
chance the ECB will cut rates by June, down from 90% at the
start of the week. For the Fed, a June cut was priced at 65%,
down from 85% on Monday.