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Euro area bond yields down less than 2 bp over two
sessions
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PIMCO says ECB easing cycle probably over
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Traders price in 54% chance of another ECB rate cut in
2026
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France still in focus as fiscal concerns remain
By Stefano Rebaudo
Oct 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
inched lower for a second straight session on Tuesday, paring
Friday's rise, as investors turned cautious ahead of central
bank decisions and amid uncertainty over a broad U.S.-China
trade deal.
The U.S. Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting
on Wednesday, and rate decisions from the European Central Bank
and the Bank of Japan are due on Thursday.
Borrowing costs jumped on Friday after strong euro zone
purchasing managers' index readings, while traders priced in
slightly less than a 50% chance of another ECB rate cut next
year.
Investors are now awaiting key euro area inflation data,
which could influence expectations for future ECB policy moves.
Germany's 10-year Bund yields fell 0.5 basis points (bps) to
2.61%, after dropping one basis point (bp) the previous day.
Markets have fully priced a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed on
Wednesday for a while and will closely watch any clues about a
possible end of quantitative tightening measures.
The BoJ is expected to consider the best timing for the next
hike, while the ECB is seen keeping rates unchanged and offering
no guidance on the outlook.
"The ECB cutting cycle is presumably complete, with
inflation broadly at target and growth around trend, and the
deposit facility rate at a level likely considered the mid-point
of a neutral euro area policy range by the majority of Governing
Council members," said PIMCO portfolio manager Konstantin Veit.
Money markets priced in a 54% chance of a 25 bp ECB rate cut
by September. The key rate is seen at about
1.90% in December 2026 from the current
2%.
Euro zone consumers have lowered their inflation
expectations for the next year, indicating price growth is no
longer a major worry, the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey
showed.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for ECB policy rate outlook, dropped one bp to
1.97%.
The yield gap between safe-haven Bunds and 10-year French
government bonds - a market gauge of the risk
premium investors demand to hold French debt - was at 80.50. The
spread hit 87.96 bps in early October, its widest since January,
driven by investor concerns over France's fiscal trajectory.
"We remain negative on France," said Mohit Kumar a European
economist at Jefferies, referencing the French National
Assembly's adoption of an amendment to increase corporate taxes,
as a compromise to get a budget deal.
"The only way for the current government to survive is to
offer more compromises which would be fiscally negative," he
added.