LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs across the
euro zone nudged up on Monday, with markets wary that the
European Central Bank could soon hike rates to contain inflation
even as oil prices nudged down from recent highs.
Overall trading conditions were thin with UK markets closed
for a public holiday.
Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield was around 2 basis
points (bps) higher at 3.05%, while Italian peers
rose about the same amount to 3.88%.
Rate-sensitive two-year bond yields were up around 2 bps
across the bloc .
While oil prices were holding below last week's four-year
peaks, they remain above $100 per barrel and the Strait of
Hormuz remains closed due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran -
prolonging the impact of a global energy shock.
Money markets price a roughly 80% chance of a quarter-point
hike at the ECB's June meeting and fully price in at least two
rate increases this year.
With markets across the euro area closed on Friday for the
May Day holiday, analysts said traders were reacting to ECB
commentary since Thursday's decision to leave rates unchanged.
The ECB may need to tighten policy, perhaps as soon as June,
policymakers said on Friday, warning that the inflation outlook
is deteriorating and the risk is rising that high price growth
gets entrenched.
The central bank on Thursday debated hiking rates and
signalled, in both on- and off-the-record comments, that higher
rates would remain on the agenda as it fears an energy-induced
inflation spike could persist beyond a one-off impact.
"ECB sources suggested almost a tightening bias and possibly
a couple of rate hikes if there is no relief on energy prices,"
said Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann.
"However, new tariff threats for European carmakers are
likely to weigh on risk sentiment and growth prospects, thereby
complicating the ECB's potential response in June."
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would increase
tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union to 25% this
week from the previously agreed 15%, saying the bloc had not
complied with its trade deal with Washington.
On Monday, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de
Galhau said he expected the inflation rate to return to 2% in
2027-2028 after a spike this year triggered by higher energy
prices.
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Emelia
Sithole-Matarise)