LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Euro zone longer dated bond
yields rose on Monday, and the German yield curve was at its
steepest since 2022 as traders processed the weekend's
geopolitical developments, which will likely require greater
European borrowing to spend on defence.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield, the euro zone
benchmark, rose 10 basis points to 2.49%, and the 30-year yield
rose 12 bps to 2.81%, set for its biggest daily rise
since April.
The move was partly a rebound from Friday's two-week lows
for both the 10- and 30-year yields, but also came after
European leaders agreed at Sunday's summit in London that they
must spend more on defence.
The European Commission chief suggested the bloc could ease
rules that limit debt levels.
In addition, Reuters reported, citing sources, that the
parties in talks to form Germany's new government are
considering quickly setting up two special funds, potentially
worth hundreds of billions of euros, one for defence and a
second for infrastructure.
"The defence story continues to run, and so the idea is
that greater defence spending requires more borrowing in
Germany, so higher debt issuance," said Kenneth Broux, head of
corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.
The same trend was seen even more dramatically in stock
markets, where defence names such as BAE systems,
Thales and Rheinmetall were all up over 10%.
"Though, for me, I'm not sure how far this runs, the
story is really U.S. tariffs," Broux cautioned. "A trade war is
more decisive for where the ECB stops cutting rates and where
bond yields go."
U.S. President Donald Trump said last week his
administration would soon announce
a 25% tariff on imports from the EU.
Broux also noted Monday's rise in yields had come after
falls last week. The 10-year yield dipped to 2.374%, and the
30-year to 2.358%, both their lowest in about two weeks.
STEEPER CURVE
Nonetheless, in the short term, there was a clear move
towards a steeper yield curve, meaning that investors were
demanding a greater premium to hold longer-dated than short-term
debt.
The German two-year yield was up 7 bps at 2.09%
on Monday, meaning the 10-year yield was as much as
41 bps higher than the two-year, the steepest difference since
October 2022, before the ECB began its latest round of rate
increases.
Also notable was the contrast with the United States,
where fears about the health of the economy and growing
expectations of several Federal Reserve rate cuts this year have
been pushing yields down.
German 10-year yields were last 178 bps below those of
U.S. Treasuries, the smallest gap since October.
Longer-dated bonds were under selling pressure elsewhere
in Europe too. Italy's 10-year yield was 7 bps
higher at 3.53%.
As well as geopolitics, investors were processing
euro zone inflation data
released on Monday.
Inflation dropped a bit less than expected last month
but its most closely watched component did also fall,
reinforcing the case for another ECB interest rate cut on
Thursday.