(Updates at 1455 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
Aug 19 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields were
steady on Monday as investors braced for a week packed with
economic data and a meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole.
Investors will be looking at euro zone business activity
figures and negotiated wage growth data due later in the week,
which the European Central Bank will consider before its
September rate decision.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was little changed at 2.256%.
Some analysts say that markets will face a reality check
late this week, after recent volatility, as investors and
central bankers return from holidays.
Euro area borrowing costs have tracked perceptions of risks
in the U.S. economy, with U.S. Treasury yields slightly lower on
Monday, continuing to reverse Thursday's big rise as investors
digested data showing a resilient U.S. consumer.
"The next few weeks will likely determine whether the
Federal Reserve ends up cutting by 50-75 bps this year or by 150
bps or more," Ralf Pressuer, rate strategist at BofA, said.
He said the Jackson Hole conference was the first
opportunity for the Fed to push back against the implied chance
of a 50-bps cut at one of the remaining three meetings of the
year.
"Pricing in less than 75 bps for the remainder of 2024 needs
confirmation that the July labour market report was indeed
weather distorted, as well as continued strength in ISM
services," he added.
Further weakness in economic data could lead to traders
pricing in successive 50-bp cuts. Markets are discounting 95 bps
of cuts by year-end.
A decline in euro zone countries' August flash PMIs, due on
Thursday, "would cast further doubt over prospects for the euro
area's growth rebound, and would potentially set the stage for
downward revisions to the ECB's growth forecast profile,"
Barclays said in a note.
Meanwhile, an upside surprise in the second quarter euro
area negotiated wages indicator could lead to fresh nervousness
around inflationary second-round effects.
Money markets priced in around 65 bps of ECB rate cuts in
2024, implying two 25-bps moves and around
a 60% chance of a third cut.
Investors will scrutinize comments by ECB speakers on the
growth outlook amid rising risks to activity, especially in
Germany.
The spread between U.S. and German borrowing costs
was at 162 bps. It hit a 12-month low at around
153 bps early this month.
Italy's 10-year yield dropped 2 bps to 3.626%,
with the yield gap between Italian and German bonds at 136 bps
.