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Euro zone yields steady, markets cautious before economic data
Aug 19, 2024 8:20 AM

(Updates at 1455 GMT)

By Stefano Rebaudo

Aug 19 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields were

steady on Monday as investors braced for a week packed with

economic data and a meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole.

Investors will be looking at euro zone business activity

figures and negotiated wage growth data due later in the week,

which the European Central Bank will consider before its

September rate decision.

Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the

benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was little changed at 2.256%.

Some analysts say that markets will face a reality check

late this week, after recent volatility, as investors and

central bankers return from holidays.

Euro area borrowing costs have tracked perceptions of risks

in the U.S. economy, with U.S. Treasury yields slightly lower on

Monday, continuing to reverse Thursday's big rise as investors

digested data showing a resilient U.S. consumer.

"The next few weeks will likely determine whether the

Federal Reserve ends up cutting by 50-75 bps this year or by 150

bps or more," Ralf Pressuer, rate strategist at BofA, said.

He said the Jackson Hole conference was the first

opportunity for the Fed to push back against the implied chance

of a 50-bps cut at one of the remaining three meetings of the

year.

"Pricing in less than 75 bps for the remainder of 2024 needs

confirmation that the July labour market report was indeed

weather distorted, as well as continued strength in ISM

services," he added.

Further weakness in economic data could lead to traders

pricing in successive 50-bp cuts. Markets are discounting 95 bps

of cuts by year-end.

A decline in euro zone countries' August flash PMIs, due on

Thursday, "would cast further doubt over prospects for the euro

area's growth rebound, and would potentially set the stage for

downward revisions to the ECB's growth forecast profile,"

Barclays said in a note.

Meanwhile, an upside surprise in the second quarter euro

area negotiated wages indicator could lead to fresh nervousness

around inflationary second-round effects.

Money markets priced in around 65 bps of ECB rate cuts in

2024, implying two 25-bps moves and around

a 60% chance of a third cut.

Investors will scrutinize comments by ECB speakers on the

growth outlook amid rising risks to activity, especially in

Germany.

The spread between U.S. and German borrowing costs

was at 162 bps. It hit a 12-month low at around

153 bps early this month.

Italy's 10-year yield dropped 2 bps to 3.626%,

with the yield gap between Italian and German bonds at 136 bps

.

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