LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields ticked
higher in a bumpy session on Tuesday as uncertainty over the
Iran war persisted and a U.S.-imposed deadline for a deal on the
conflict loomed large.
Iran showed no sign of agreeing to U.S. President Donald Trump's
demand that it open the Strait of Hormuz by the end of Tuesday
or suffer massive attacks on its civilian infrastructure.
"It seems to be that we are at a pivotal moment now," Philip
Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said.
"The range of outturns are either you get an agreed ceasefire at
least for a while or you see a huge escalation in the conflict,
and markets are genuinely unsure which way to turn. Therefore
we're all waiting for later on tonight or any news of
negotiations through the course of the day."
The yield on the benchmark German 10-year Bund
was last up by 3.3 basis points to 3.0294%.
Government bonds worldwide came under pressure soon after
the war started on February 28, with yields jumping higher as
inflation expectations surged on spiking energy prices. Euro
zone bond yields broadly recorded their first weekly decline
since the start of the conflict last week as hopes of potential
de-escalation emerged.
Markets have been reacting strongly to any shifts relating
to the war in the Middle East as they have been trying to
navigate the conflict's potential impact on inflation, economic
growth and central bank interest rates.
Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch told the Wall Street
Journal in remarks published on Tuesday that the European
Central Bank may need to raise interest rates if the war drags
on, and a move as early as April 30 cannot be ruled out.
Markets were last pricing in at least two interest rate
hikes, with a strong chance of a third, from the ECB by the end
of the year, broadly in line with expectations prior to the long
weekend. Before the Iran war broke out, markets had seen a small
chance of a rate cut from the ECB this year.
German 2-year yields, which are more sensitive to
rate expectations, were last up 4.4 bps to 2.6682%.
The yield on Italy's 10-year government bond was
last up 3.3 bps to 3.9023%, with the gap between the German and
Italian 10-year bond yields last standing at
around 86 bps.