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Dollar buoyed by safe-haven demand
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Markets fear Israel-Iran fighting could spillover into
regional
conflict
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Monetary policy decisions by Fed, BOJ, BoE due through the
week
By Johann M Cherian
June 16 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed against major
currencies on Monday, driven by safe-haven buying from investors
fearing the Israel-Iran fighting could escalate into a broader
regional conflict as they braced for a week packed with central
bank meetings.
As both Iran and Israel showed no signs of backing off from
their attacks, the prospect that Tehran might seek to choke off
the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important gateway for
oil shipping - raised broader economic risks from disruptions in
the energy rich Middle East.
Scheduled weekend talks between Iran and the United States
on Tehran's nuclear programme were also shelved after Israel
launched its surprise attack on Friday.
On Monday, the dollar rose 0.14% to 144.3 Japanese yen
, while the euro was 0.14% lower at $1.1534.
In early Asia hours, the greenback was steady against the
Swiss franc at 0.81, while an index that measures the
dollar against six others was steady at 98.25.
Currencies that are positively correlated to risk such as
the Australian dollar and the New Zealand Dollar
were marginally higher.
"The dollar's role as a safe haven will surely be tested,
and recent price action has been inconclusive," said Win Thin,
global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
"If the Fed delivers a dovish hold as we expect, the dollar
is likely to resume weakening due to the worsening fundamental
backdrop in the U.S."
Geopolitical tensions were the latest twist for investors
and central bank policymakers who have been trying to navigate
economic uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's
move to reshape the global trade order this year.
Despite the dollar's broader rise in the past few sessions,
analysts were less convinced that the trend could continue until
there was more clarity on the tariff front.
The currency has lost over 9% in value this year as
investors remain nervous over Trump's deadline on trade deals
that come due in about three weeks, while agreements with major
trade partners including the European Union and Japan are yet to
be signed.
Investors now will look progress in any bilateral meetings
with the U.S. on the side of a Group of Seven leaders meet in
Canada.
Top on the agenda this week is a host of central bank
monetary policy decisions, with the spotlight on the U.S.
Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The central bank is widely expected to leave borrowing costs
steady but investors will likely lap up Fed's views on recent
data that has broadly indicated softening economic activity even
as risks to increasing price pressures stay high.
"What you're going to see from their growth forecasts is
that the shift towards lower growth is very much upon us and
that will keep the statement fairly neutral," Chris Weston, head
of research at Pepperstone said.
The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver its interest rate
decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with
traders largely pricing-in no change to policy.
Expectations are that the central bank could also consider
tapering its government bond holdings from the next fiscal year
as the government pushes for more domestic ownership.
Central banks in the UK, Sweden and Norway are also slated
to unveil their policy decisions.
Against an uncertain global backdrop, gold prices
rose 0.22% to $3,435.5 an ounce and stayed just shy of their
April record high.
Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries were also marginally lower
after Friday's spike as investors considered the implications
geopolitical tensions could have on price pressures.