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FOREX-Dollar on track for second weekly rise; euro, yen at multi-month lows
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FOREX-Dollar on track for second weekly rise; euro, yen at multi-month lows
Mar 13, 2026 2:26 AM

* Dollar benefits from safe-haven status

* Energy-sensitive currencies such as euro, yen at

multi-month lows

* Japan says ready to act against yen declines

(Recasts first paragraph, adds comments, background)

By Stefano Rebaudo

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was on course for a

second consecutive weekly gain on Friday as the war in the

Middle East drove investors towards safe-haven assets, while

energy-sensitive currencies such as the euro and yen slid to

multi-month lows.

A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt

the economies of Japan and the euro area, which are heavily

reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be

relatively insulated, having been a net crude exporter for

almost a decade.

Economists, meanwhile, remained wary of monetary tightening

in the economies, where heavy reliance on fuel imports means

surging energy costs are likely to weigh on growth.

The euro fell to its weakest since August, and Japan warned that

it was ready to take action to protect against declines in the

yen, which touched its lowest in 20 months.

With oil prices surging, the U.S. permitted the sale of some

Russian petroleum products that had been sanctioned due to

Moscow's hostilities in Ukraine.

Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across

the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba

Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz's shipping lane

closed.

"These statements now sound more like attempts to somehow

lower the oil price again, to which the market seems to be

responding less and less," said Volkmar Baur, forex strategist

at Commerzbank, referring to recent remarks from the U.S.

administration about a potentially swift end to the war.

Markets boosted bets on monetary tightening on both sides of

the Atlantic, on expectations that rising oil prices would stoke

inflation.

Brent futures rose on Friday, though the U.S. sought to ease

supply concerns by issuing a 30-day license for countries to buy

Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Earlier this

week, the International Energy Agency agreed on Wednesday to

release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic

stockpiles.

However, some analysts argued that emergency measures to

ease oil supply disruptions may be sending a hidden negative

signal to markets that world leaders see little room for quick

de-escalation.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback

against a basket of currencies, reached the highest level since

November 28, thanks in part to its safe-haven appeal, but also

because the U.S. is a net energy exporter.

The index rose 0.51% to 100.22 and was poised for a 1.4%

gain this week.

EURO AT 7-1/2-MONTH LOW

The euro hit its lowest level since August at $1.1438

, down 0.62%.

Investors await the European Central Bank policy meeting next

Thursday, while traders bet that surging oil prices could push

the central bank to hike rates this year.

Economists said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz

would be needed to justify ECB monetary tightening to counter

inflation.

However, Citi argued that a couple of "insurance" hikes

could not be ruled out, with the central bank potentially

opening the door to that next week. Citi's base case, however,

is that uncertainty warrants ECB policy inaction.

The greenback rose to its highest since January versus the

Swiss Franc at 0.7894.

YEN IN INTERVENTION TERRITORY

The yen slid to 159.69 per dollar, the weakest since

July 2024.

Japan is ready to take the necessary steps against yen moves

that impact people's lives, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama

said on Friday, adding that she was in close contact with U.S.

authorities on foreign exchange issues.

When the yen weakened toward the critical 160-per-dollar

level in January, the U.S. conducted so-called rate checks that

often presage intervention, helping drive a rally in Japan's

currency. However, the recent reluctance by officials to talk up

the currency could nudge the yen as low as 165 to the dollar,

some analysts said.

"The third option (a fully joint intervention with the U.S.

Federal Reserve) might be longer lasting and tap into ideas that

Washington is ready to fight the recent dollar strength," said

Chris Turner, head of forex strategy at ING, after arguing Japan

authorities are firmly in intervention territory.

"The problem for authorities in Tokyo and Washington,

however, is that the dollar/yen will not turn sustainably lower

until energy prices reverse," he added.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.70% versus the

greenback to $0.7027.

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