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FOREX-Dollar stays strong, political uncertainty saps euro
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FOREX-Dollar stays strong, political uncertainty saps euro
Jun 17, 2024 1:25 AM

(Updates with comment, refreshes prices at 0758 GMT)

By Brigid Riley and Amanda Cooper

TOKYO/LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm

on Monday, while the euro traded around more than one-month

lows, as political turmoil in Europe ramped up the level of

uncertainty among traders, while investors awaited more data to

gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Investors have been contemplating the risk of a budget

crisis at the heart of the euro area, as far right and leftist

parties gain momentum ahead of France's snap parliamentary

election, pressuring President Emmanuel Macron's centrist

administration.

Even after the French financial markets endured a brutal

sell-off late last week, European Central Bank policymakers have

no plans to discuss emergency purchases of French bonds, five

sources told Reuters.

The euro eased 0.1% to $1.0699, after falling to

its lowest since May 1 at $1.06678 on Friday. The currency also

logged its biggest weekly decline since April at 0.88% last

week.

"With traders wanting certainty, this may not come until

after the second-round vote (July 7), so the prospect of further

downside in French and EU markets is real," Chris Weston, head

of research at Pepperstone, said.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency

against a basket of six others, held around its highest since

May 2, driven mostly by weakness in the euro.

The single European currency "accounts for around 57% of the

US dollar index weighting, the fall of the euro has indirectly

benefited the dollar", said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst

at City Index.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on

Sunday it was a "reasonable prediction" that the U.S. central

bank would cut interest rates once this year, waiting until

December to do it.

The Fed published updated projections last week that showed

the median forecast from all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a

single interest rate cut this year.

LIGHT WEEK FOR DATA

This week is light on major U.S. economic data to help

clarify the Fed's outlook, although U.S. retail sales on Tuesday

and flash PMIs on Friday may give hints about consumption and

economic strength.

"Data would likely have to miss estimates by a wide margin

to rekindle bets of more Fed cuts, with the FOMC meeting still

freshly in the minds of investors," said City Index's Simpson.

Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.267. Britain's inflation

pressures still appear too hot for the Bank of England to cut

rates at its June 20 meeting, with a majority of economists

polled by Reuters forecasting the first cut would not come until

Aug. 1.

Meanwhile, the yen remained pinned near a 34-year low

against the dollar after the Bank of Japan on Friday pushed cuts

to bond buying amounts and details of its tapering plan to its

July policy meeting.

Governor Kazuo Ueda said he would not rule out raising

interest rates in July as weakness in the yen pushes up import

costs, although that may not be the hawkish statement that some

took it to be, said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan FX and

commodities sales at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

"The sense was that raising rates and tapering are two

separate things" that the BOJ would decide whether or not to do

based on different criteria, he said.

The yen steadied at 157.49, after slipping to

158.26 after Friday's decision, its lowest since April 29.

The yen's decline to 160.245 per dollar at the end of April

triggered several rounds of official Japanese intervention

totalling 9.79 trillion yen.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was last up 0.7% at

$66,220, while ether fell 1.2% to $3,553, according to

LSEG data.

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