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Dollar index at four-month low
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Safe havens yen and Swiss Franc perk up
(Updates with European midday trading)
By Yadarisa Shabong and Brigid Riley
March 7 (Reuters) - The euro was set for its best week
in 16 years against the dollar on Friday, boosted by Germany's
game-changing fiscal reforms, while worries over growth and
tariffs drove the greenback to a four-month low ahead of U.S.
jobs data.
It has been a volatile week for the currency market, driven
mainly by U.S. trade and economic growth uncertainties and a
pivotal development in Europe as its largest economy abandoned
its fiscal constraints to boost spending and revive growth.
"This week is a watershed moment ...because we've lived
through a couple of years of dollar and U.S. growth
exceptionalism," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research
FX and rates at Societe Generale.
Following a slew of mixed economic data out of the United
States so far this week, the focus on Friday falls on U.S.
nonfarm payrolls numbers as market participants will assess the
health of the economy and its implications on inflation and
interest rates.
The U.S. dollar index has fallen more than 3.5% this
week to its lowest since early November.
The euro, on the other hand, has risen more than 4.5% and
was set for its biggest weekly jump since March 2009. It was
perched at its highest since early November and was last up 0.6%
on the day at $1.08520.
"Right now we're in a situation where investors are buying
dips in euro/dollar and I think payrolls today can only
accelerate the move higher," Broux said.
"I do not think that a stronger NFP print is going to stop
this move higher in euro/dollar. It could slow it, but I don't
think it's going to change the trend."
The European Central Bank's hawkish rate cut and surging
European bond yields on the back of Germany's massive spending
proposal has helped lift the common currency.
BofA Global Research raised its year-end forecast for the
euro to $1.15, from $1.10 previously.
The pound headed for its worst weekly performance
against the euro since 2023, while it strengthened against the
dollar.
'FALLEN OUT OF FAVOUR'
Another reprieve of levies aimed at Mexico and Canada
announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday offered
little relief to whiplashed markets.
The greenback edged 0.1% higher on the Canadian dollar
to C$1.4317 but slipped 0.2% against the Mexican peso
to 20.2276 pesos.
The exemption expires on April 2 when Trump said he will
impose reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners.
The dollar has "fallen out of favour" amid the uncertainty,
with the perceived inflationary impact of tariffs no longer
enough to support it, said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at
InTouch Capital Markets.
"Ahead of the NFP survey, evidence has tilted towards a
softer outcome. If this transpires it could spook markets
further," he said.
Against a backdrop of federal job culls, the U.S. likely
added 160,000 jobs in February compared with 143,000 in January,
while the unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at
4.0%, economists forecast in a Reuters poll.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be able to follow
up the jobs report when he speaks later in the day on the
economic outlook.
Markets currently have three Fed rate cuts priced in for the
rest of the year.
The safe-haven yen is at its strongest against the
greenback since early October, while the Swiss franc hit a
three-month peak of 0.8838.
Japan's economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said the nation has
cleared the key threshold for the government to officially
declare an end to long-term price deflation.
Inflationary pressure from wage gains and prolonged rises in
food costs could prompt Bank of Japan board members to discuss
another interest rate hike as soon as in May, three sources
familiar with its thinking told Reuters.
Elsewhere in Asia, the offshore yuan steadied at 7.2346.
China's exports slowed over the January-February period and
imports unexpectedly contracted, official data on Friday shows,
as trade tensions escalated with the United States.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar slid 0.2% to
$0.6320.